近54 a蒙古高原降水变化趋势及区域分异特征  

Change trend and regional differentiation of precipitation over the Mongolian Plateau in recent 54 years

作　　者：那音太 秦福莹[3,4] 贾根锁[5] 杨劼[6] 包玉海 NA Yin-tai;QIN Fu-ying;JIA Gen-suo;YANG Jie;BAO Yu-hai(Resources and Environment Economy College,Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics,Hohhot 010070,Inner Mongolia,China;Planning and Geographic Information System Laboratory,Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics,Hohhot 010070,Inner Mongolia,China;College of Geographical Science,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,Inner Mongolia,China;Key Laboratory of Mongolia Plateau Disaster and Ecological Security,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,Inner Mongolia,China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics,Hohhot 010070,Inner Mongolia,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古财经大学资源与环境经济学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010070 [2]内蒙古财经大学规划与地理信息系统实验室,内蒙古呼和浩特010070 [3]内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010022 [4]内蒙古师范大学蒙古高原灾害与生态安全重点实验室,内蒙古呼和浩特010022 [5]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [6]内蒙古财经大学,内蒙古呼和浩特010070

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2019年第6期1253-1261,共9页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：内蒙古教育厅项目(NJZY17158);内蒙古财经大学国际合作项目(GJHZ201705);国家自然科学基金项目(61661045,61631011)

摘　　要：近半个世纪,有关全球气候的话题一直是科学界争论的焦点,拥有世界最大温带草原的蒙古高原降水变化是属于全球变化问题,又是其脆弱环境变化的最主要驱动因子之一。通过利用蒙古高原1961-2014年136个气象站点的月降水量数据,采用Sen’s斜率法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和空间地统计方法,研究了该地区近54 a降水要素基本气候特征及其时空变化规律。结果表明:(1)近54 a蒙古高原年降水量呈减少趋势,趋势为-2.30 mm·(10 a)^-1(P>0.05),整体上年降水量东南及西北显著减少,东北及中南明显增加(2)夏季和秋季降水量呈减少趋势,趋势分别为-5.75 mm·(10 a)^-1和-0.42 mm·(10 a)^-1(P>0.05);春季和冬季降水量呈显著增加趋势,趋势分别为1.95 mm·(10 a)^-1和0.50 mm·(10 a)^-1(P<0.05);季节降水量出现正负距平的年份和周期有所不同。(3)春季和冬季降水量呈增加趋势的站点居多,占全部站点的89.0%和84.6%,主要分布于高原东北部和中南部地区;夏季和秋季降水量呈减少趋势的站点居多,占全部站点的80.1%和57.4%,主要分布于高原东南部和西北部地区。为准确评估蒙古高原气候变化以及合理提出生态环境决策提供科学参考。The topic of global climate has been the focus of scientific debate for nearly half a century.Precipitation change of Mongolian Plateau,where distributes the largest temperate grassland in the world,is not only a global change issue,but also one of the main driving factors of its fragile environment change.Climatic characteristics of precipitation and its spatial and temporal variations were analyzed with Sen’s slope,Mann-Kendall trend test and geostatistical method based on the monthly precipitation data of 136 weather stations across the Mongolian Plateau during 1961-2014.The results show as follows:(1)Plateau averaged multi-year mean annual precipitation was 305.6 mm with spatial distribution gradually decreasing from the northern,eastern and southeastern parts of the Plateau to the central regions.Annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend at the rate of-2.30 mm·(10 a)^-1(P>0.05)over the Mongolian Plateau in recent 54 years with the obvious positive anomalies in the 1990 s and negative ones in the 2000 s of 21st century.On the whole,significant decreasing trends of annual precipitation were observed in the southeastern and northwestern region,while significant increasing trends were found in the northeastern and central and southern regions.(2)Seasonal mean precipitation is 40.6 mm,207.9 mm,50.4 mm and 6.8 mm in spring,summer,autumn and winter,accounting for 13.3%,68.0%,16.5%and 2.2%of the annual precipitation,respectively.In inter-annual variability,precipitation in summer and autumn showed a decreasing trend at the rate of-5.75 mm·(10 a)^-1 and-0.42 mm·(10 a)^-1(P>0.05)respectively over the period of 1961-2014,while precipitation in spring and winter showed a significant increasing trend at the rate of 1.95 mm·(10 a)^-1 and 0.50 mm·(10 a)^-1(P<0.05)respectively.The years with positive or negative anomaly and periodic changes are quite different for the seasonal precipitation.(3)A majority of stations showed increasing trend for spring and winter precipitation,which accounting for 89.0%and 84.6%of

关 键 词：蒙古高原 降水量 变化趋势 季节变化 区域分异 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]