城市交通网络运行速度预测模型研究  

Research on the prediction model of city traffic network velocity distribution

作　　者：施树明[1] 李文茹[1] SHI Shu-ming;LI Wen-ru(School of Transportation,Jilin University,Changchun 130022,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学交通学院

出　　处：《东北师大学报（自然科学版）》2019年第4期78-86,共9页Journal of Northeast Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目（51475199)

摘　　要：针对城市交通网络越来越复杂的问题,提出以汽车运行速度概率分布为判断指标,以长春市交通局提供的浮动车数据为基础,基于统计推断的方法得到城市交通网络运行速度概率分布模型.通过对城市交通网络运行速度产生影响的道路交通参数进行分析,得到模型参数与道路交通参数的关系式,构建了城市交通网络中汽车运行速度概率分布预测模型.For different types of city traffic environment,it is improper to use only one driving cycle to describe complex city driving situation and test the exhaust emission precisely.In order to solve this,our country needs to construct different typical driving cycles according to our actual city traffic environment.Therefore,defining the category of one city and finding the methods to choose typical cities is one of the priorities for nowadays.This paper proposed to use the probability distribution of vehicle velocity as a quantitative evaluation index.Based on the statistical inference,this paper got the fitting model.And then it analyzed the inner relationship between model characteristics and road traffic environment characteristics and got the equation of them.Finally the distribution prediction-model of city traffic network velocity is constructed.

关 键 词：城市交通网络 速度预测模型 汽车运行工况 威布尔分布 

分 类 号：TP399[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]