基于生态足迹的河北省土地可持续利用评价  

Evaluation of Sustainable Land Utilization in Hebei Province Based on Ecologic Footprint Model

作　　者：潘涛 胡涛[1] 冯雪娇[2] 耿娟 PAN Tao;HU Tao;FENG Xuejiao;GENG Juan(School of Tourism,University,570228,Haikou,PRC;Institue of Science and Technology Strategy,Jiangxi Academy of Sciences,330096,Nanchang,PRC)

机构地区：[1]海南大学旅游学院,海口570228 [2]江西省科学院科技战略研究所,南昌330096

出　　处：《江西科学》2019年第6期917-925,共9页Jiangxi Science

摘　　要：基于生态足迹理论和模型,在更新和改进相关参数后测算了河北省2006-2015年生态足迹、生态承载力和生态赤字(盈余),引入万元GDP生态足迹等指标从多方面刻画河北省土地可持续利用水平,并基于灰色预测模型对河北省"十三五"期间生态足迹相关情况进行预测。研究表明:1)总体来看,2006-2015年河北省人均生态足迹呈增长趋势,人均生态承载力平稳中略有下降,导致人均生态赤字不断扩大,虽近2年有所回落好转,但根据"十三五"期间的预测结果来看仍不容乐观;2)具体而言,10年间河北省生态足迹和生态承载力的主要来源分别是化石能源消耗和耕地,除建设用地外其他土地类型始终处于生态赤字状态,其中水域和牧草地的相对赤字情况尤为严重;3)河北省生态足迹指数、生态多样性指数和生态经济系统发展能力等指标在2006-2013年间持续恶化,在2013-2015年间略有好转,万元GDP生态足迹代表的资源利用效率逐年提升,但扭转生态赤字局面任重道远。Based on the ecological footprint theory and model, this paper estimated the ecological footprints, ecological capacity and ecological deficit(remainder) of Hebei Province from 2006 to 2015, and introduced the indicators including Ecological Footprint per Ten Thousand GDP, etc, to depict the level of sustainable land utilization of Hebei Province from various aspects. Besides, based on the grey model, this paper predicted the ecological footprints of the "13 th Five-Year Plan" period in Hebei Province. The research showed that: 1) Overall, the per capita ecological footprints of Hebei Province showed an increasing trend from 2006 to 2015, and the per capita ecological capacity decreased slightly, resulting in the continuous expansion of the per capita ecological deficit. Although this situation has improved in the past two years, based on the forecast results during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period, it is still not optimistic;2) Specifically, the main sources of ecological footprints and ecological capacity of Hebei Province in the past 10 years were fossil energy consumption and cultivated land respectively, other land types except construction land were always under ecological deficit, of which the relative deficits of waters and pastures were especially serious;3) The Ecological Footprints Index, Ecological Diversity Index and Eco-economic System Development Capacity Index continued to deteriorate from 2006 to 2013, after which the 2013-2015 saw a slightly improvement. Although the resource utilization efficiency represented by the Ecological Footprint per Ten Thousand GDP increased year by year. However, reversing the ecological deficit situation still has a long way to go.

关 键 词：生态足迹 可持续发展 灰色预测 河北省 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]