基于生态系统服务对土地使用项目真实经济成本的计量分析  

Econometric Analysis of Real Economic Cost of Land Use Projects Based on Ecosystem Services

作　　者：闫云侠[1] 季娜 刘程程 杨杰 YAN Yun-xia;JI Na;LIU Cheng-cheng;YANG Jie(College of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu,Anhui 233030,China;College of Finance,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu,Anhui 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]安徽财经大学金融学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《河北北方学院学报（自然科学版）》2019年第11期50-55,60,共7页Journal of Hebei North University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目:“3-流猜想、Fulkerson-覆盖及相关问题”(11601001);安徽财经大学教研项目:“全国大学生节能减排社会实践与科技竞赛”(acxkjsjy201803zd)、“大数据背景下数学类专业课程数学建模教学内容的研究”(acjyyb2018006)

摘　　要：目的针对土地使用项目的真实经济成本,考虑到土地项目对于生态系统服务的影响,对土地使用项目真实经济成本进行计量分析,并根据研究结果提出相关建议。方法为确定土地使用项目的真实经济成本,综合考虑土地使用项目在农业、工业、房地产业、环境4个方面影响生态服务系统的成本以及土地自身的成本,利用MATLAB、SPSS,运用因子分析对中国各地区生态环境影响进行评估,并基于经济效益理论对土地使用项目真实经济效益进行研究,最后利用ARIMA模型对土地使用项目的未来真实成本进行分析。结果山东省的土地使用项目对于生态环境造成的影响最大,西藏自治区的土地使用项目对于生态环境造成的影响最小。工业真实经济效益与农业、房地产业的真实经济效益正相关。北京市农业的真实经济效益在各个地区都是最大的,工业都是最小的。随着时间的推移,土地使用项目对于生态系统服务的影响会发生变化,而变化的方向主要取决于人们对污染的治理。结论因子分析中因子得分越高的地区真实经济成本越高,土地项目对生态环境造成的影响越大,甚至有可能造成生态退化;工业、农业、房地产业土地使用项目的真实经济效益呈正相关关系;经济效益与GDP相关,经济越发达的地区,真实经济效益就越大;随着时间的推移土地使用项目对于生态系统服务的影响会发生变化,而变化的方向取决于人们对污染的治理。未来应科学规划土地使用项目,并加强环境保护,促进污染治理。Objective In view of the real economic cost of land use projects and the impact of land projects on ecosystem services,this paper made a econometric analysis of the real economic cost of land use projects,and put forward relevant suggestions based on the research results.Methods By MATLAB and SPSS,factor analysis was used to evaluate the ecological environmental impact of various regions in China,and the real economic benefits of land use projects were studied based on the economic benefit theory.Finally,ARIMA model was used to analyze the real future costs of land use projects.Results Land use projects in Shandong Province had the greatest impact on the ecological environment,while land use projects in Tibet autonomous region had the least impact on the ecological environment.The real economic benefits of industry were positively correlated with the real economic benefits of agriculture and real estate industry.The real economic benefits of agriculture in Beijing City were the largest,while the real economic benefits of industry were the smallest.Over time,the impact of land use projects on ecosystem services would change,and the direction of change mainly depended on people's pollution control.Conclusion Of factor score of factor analysis,the higher the real economic costs,and the effects on the ecological environment,the greater ecological degradation the land project may even cause.The real economic benefits of land use projects in industry,agriculture and real estate are positively correlated.The economic benefits are related to GDP.The more developed the economy is,the greater the real economic benefits will be.Over time,the effects of land use project on ecosystem services change,and change direction depends on people’s pollution control.In the future,we should plan land use projects scientifically,strengthen environmental protection and promote pollution control.

关 键 词：土地使用项目 真实经济成本 因子分析 成本效益 计量分析 

分 类 号：F302.23[经济管理—产业经济] F301.2