我国医疗卫生支出对期望寿命影响的因果分析研究  

Medical-health expenditure and life expectancy in China

作　　者：王振杰[1] 丁盈盈 杨涵墨 李响 李佳怿[1] 肖溢文 WANG Zhen-jie;DING Ying-ying;YANG Han-mo;LI Xiang;LI Jia-yi;XIAO Yi-wen(Institute of Population Research,Peking University,Beijing,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学人口研究所,北京100871 [2]北京大学国家发展研究院,北京100871

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2019年第23期4298-4301,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：PEAK城市项目,UKRI’s Global Challenge Research Fund(ES/P011055/1);教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金资助项目第50批

摘　　要：目的探究我国医疗卫生支出对期望寿命的影响及其之间的因果关系。方法利用世界银行给出的中国人口数据,使用R语言对该数据进行协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验,分析我国医疗卫生支出与期望寿命之间的因果关系。结果本研究发现我国期望寿命与公共卫生医疗支出存在正向的长期均衡关系(回归系数=0.490,t值=19.10,P<0.001),与人口自然增长率(回归系数=-0.035,t值=-11.38,P<0.001)、人均医疗卫生支出(回归系数=-5.01,t值=-17.91,P<0.001)则存在反向的长期均衡关系。人口自然增长率(P=0.007)、公共卫生医疗支出(P<0.001)和人均医疗卫生支出(P<0.001)均是期望寿命的原因,但不存在互为因果关系。结论医疗卫生支出的提高推动了期望寿命的提高,而人口自然增长率和人均医疗卫生支出的对期望寿命提高作用不大。Objective To explore life expectancy trend and its causal relationship with medical-health expenditure in China.Methods Based on the China data-driven from the World Bank,urca,lmtest and grangertest packages in R software were used to conduct cointegration test and Granger causality test,And the causal association between life expectancy and medical-health expenditure in China was analyzed.Results There was a positive long-term balanced relationship between life expectancy and public health expenditure(r=0.490,t=19.10,P<0.001),but the natural population growth rate(r=-0.035,t=-11.38,P<0.001)and per capita health expenditure(r=-5.01,t=-17.91,P<0.001)were inversely related with life expectancy.The natural population growth rate(P=0.007),public health expenditure(P<0.001)and per capita health expenditure(P<0.001)were the causal reasons of life expectancy,but no mutual causal relationship.Conclusion China’s life expectancy presents an upward trend,and public health medical expenditures increase results in increase in life expectancy.The natural population growth rate and per capita health expenditure increase the expectancy of life expectancy.

关 键 词：期望寿命 医疗卫生支出 协整检验 因果关系 

分 类 号：R184[医药卫生—流行病学]