双支柱货币政策框架下的货币条件指数构建  

Construction of Monetary Condition Index Under Framework of Double Pillar Monetary Policy

作　　者：程强[1] Cheng Qiang(School of Economics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院

出　　处：《统计与决策》2019年第22期151-154,共4页Statistics & Decision

摘　　要：考虑我国货币政策执行过程中侧重数量型工具的特殊性,文章结合完善货币政策双支柱框架的目标任务,运用误差修正模型来构建货币条件指数MCI。根据应对经济周期和金融周期的逆周期调控手段的不同,构建了5个MCI指数。格兰杰因果分析表明:在应对经济周期上,货币政策源于产出缺口,但对产出和通胀同时产生影响;而目前在应对金融周期上货币政策还略显被动,资产价格是货币政策的格兰杰原因,货币政策稳定金融市场的职能有待完善。Considering the particularity of quantitative tools in the implementation of monetary policy in China, this paper combines with the objective and task of perfecting the dual-pillar framework of monetary policy, and uses the error correction model to construct the monetary condition index(MCI). And then the paper constructs five MCI indices according to the different means of countercyclical regulation dealing with the economic cycle and the financial cycle. Granger causality analysis shows that,in response to the economic cycle, monetary policy originates from the output gap, but produces influence on both output and inflation;presently in response to the financial cycle, monetary policy is somewhat passive, and asset price is the Granger cause of monetary policy, thus the function of monetary policy to stabilize financial market needs to be perfected.

关 键 词：货币条件指数 经济周期 金融周期 货币政策双支柱框架 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]