“一带一路”倡议与企业投资反应——基于问卷调查数据的探索性实证  

The?Belt?and?Road?Initiative and Corporate Investment Responses:An Exploratory Empirical Study Based on Questionnaire Data

作　　者：孙泽生 王耀青 SUN Ze-sheng;WANG Yao-qing(Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234;Zhejiang University of Science&Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China)

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学商学院,上海200234 [2]浙江科技学院经济管理学院,浙江杭州310023

出　　处：《当代财经》2019年第12期96-107,共12页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“基于微观企业视角的‘一带一路’国际产能合作风险防范研究”(17BJY012)

摘　　要：基于认知-影响-反应分析范式和企业调研问卷数据并区分企业特征和管理者异质性来探讨"一带一路"倡议下的企业投资反应特征及机理。利用因子分析、聚类分析和方差分析等方法给出管理者异质性衡量指标后,运用回归模型研究发现:国有企业比非国有企业有更高认知强度和投资意愿反应激励,但风险厌恶型管理者产生了企业认知和投资反应稳定器作用;管理者异质性主要作用于企业面对"一带一路"环境变化的外视反应;投资经验不对企业认知和投资意愿反应构成影响,企业规模不影响企业对"一带一路"倡议的认知;"一带一路"的企业认知及所受影响间存在正向互动影响,二者联合推动企业做出正向投资反应。分类模型还发现,企业规模对投资便利化的影响为正,与抱团式投资、合资或东道国政府签约意愿正相关;国有企业要比非国有企业有更强抱团式投资、合资和并购的意愿;企业反应主要源于外部环境变化对企业的影响,但企业可不依赖于认知强度而做出独立的并购、合资、研发、人才招聘等投资和风险防控反应。On the basis of the cognition-influence-reaction analytical paradigm and the questionnaire data from enterprise researches, this paper explores the characteristics and mechanisms of enterprises’ investment response to the Belt and Road Initiative by means of distinguishing corporate characteristics and managerial heterogeneity. When the measurement index for managerial heterogeneity is given by using such methods as factor analysis, cluster analysis and variance analysis, it applies the regression model to conduct a study. The findings show that state-owned enterprises have higher cognition and willingness to invest than non-state-owned enterprises;however, the risk-averse managers have given birth to the function of a stabilizer for corporate cognition and investment response. The managers’ heterogeneity mainly acts on the outward reaction for the BRI environmental changes;investment experience does not affect the corporate cognition and investment willingness, and the size of enterprises does not affect corporate cognition to the Belt and Road Initiative. There is a positive interaction between the BRI enterprises’ cognition and the impact they received, the two jointly can promote the enterprises to make positive investment responses. With the classification model it also finds out that enterprise size has zero impact on investment facilitation, and being positively correlated to group investment, joint venture or host government’s willingness to sign contracts. The state-owned enterprises have stronger willingness for group investment, joint venture and M&A than non-state-owned enterprises. The response of enterprises mainly comes from the impact of external environment changes on enterprises, but enterprises can make independent investment and risk control reaction like M&A, joint venture, R&D, talent recruitment, etc., without relying on the strength of cognition.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 异质性企业 风险倾向 投资意愿 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F279.2