经济、民生、政策对香港居民国家认同的影响——基于回归模型的分析  

The Impact of Economy,People’s Livelihood and Policy on Hong Kong Residents’ National Identity-Based on an Analysis of Regression Model

作　　者：冯庆想 赖付军[2] 徐海波[3] FENG Qing-xiang;LAI Fu-jun;XU Hai-bo(Institute of Guangdong Hong Kong and Macao Development Studies,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510275,China;China Institute of Financial Development,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;College of Social Sciences,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518060,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学粤港澳发展研究院,广东广州510275 [2]中央财经大学中国金融发展研究院,北京100081 [3]深圳大学社会科学学院,广东深圳518060

出　　处：《系统科学学报》2019年第4期29-34,50,共7页Chinese Journal of Systems Science

基　　金：教育部高校人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目《港澳本土意识与青少年的国家认同》(16JJDGAT004);国家社会科学基金重大项目《香港社会思潮分析与有效引导的对策研究》(14ZDA058);国家民委民族研究项目《香港地区中华民族共同体意识建构研究》(018-GMB-006)阶段性成果

摘　　要：影响香港居民国家认同的因素来自多方面,其中,经济、民生、政策的影响不容忽视。我们通过选取1997年12月至2016年6月的数据,使用回归模型实证分析了经济、民生、政策因素对香港居民国家认同的影响,得出的结论是:贸易发展、房地产价格与香港居民国家认同呈现正相关;本地生产总值变动率、通货膨胀率、失业率与香港居民国家认同呈现负相关;有些回归结果与我们传统认识相符,有些则与之相背离。个中影响机理可从香港经济增长与民生改善滞后之间的矛盾、中央惠港政策的双面效应找到答案。The factors that affect Hong Kongresidents’ national identity are multifaceted. Among them,the impact of economy,people’s livelihood and policy should not be ignored. We selected datas from December 1997 to June 2016,and use the regression model to analyze the influence factors of economy,people’s livelihood and policy on Hong Kong residents’ national identity. The conclusions are as following: trade development and real estate prices are positively correlated with Hong Kong residents’ national identity;the change rate of GDP,inflation rate and unemployment rate are negatively correlated with Hong Kong residents’ national identity. Some of the regression results are consistent with our traditional understanding,while others deviate from it. The impact mechanism can be found from the contradiction between the growth of Hong Kong economy and the improvement of people’s livelihood and the double-sided effect of the policy of central government.

关 键 词：经济 民生 政策 香港居民 国家认同 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]