中国经济因素对国际大宗商品价格波动的影响  

Influence of China’s Economic Factors on International Commodity Price Fluctuations

作　　者：庄赟[1] 曾五一 Zhuang Yun;Zeng Wuyi(College of Finance and Economics,Jimei University,Xiamen Fujian 361021,China;School of Statistics and Information,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]集美大学财经学院,福建厦门361021 [2]上海对外经贸大学统计与信息学院,上海201620

出　　处：《统计与决策》2019年第23期114-118,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(16YJC910008)

摘　　要：为研究中国经济因素对大宗商品价格波动的影响,文章利用1992年1月至2016年5月的月度中国经济数据与9种国际大宗商品的现货价格作为样本,基于VAR模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解结果进行实证分析。结果发现:固定资产投资增速对于各大宗商品特别是金属、化工类大宗商品价格的影响相对显著,消费增速对于农副类大宗商品价格影响明显,M2增速也有着一定影响。In order to study the impact of China’s economic factors on commodity price volatility,this paper makes use of the monthly Chinese economy data from January 1992 to May 2016 and the spot prices of nine international commodities as samples,and uses the VAR model to makes an empirical analysis on impulse response function and variance decomposition results.The study result shows that the growth rate of fixed asset investment has a relatively significant impact on the prices of various commodities,especially metals and chemical commodities,while the growth rate of consumption has a significant impact on the prices of agricultural and sideline commodities,and M2 growth also has a certain impact,and the growth of M2 also has a certain effect.

关 键 词：大宗商品价格 中国经济因素 VAR模型 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F201[经济管理—国民经济]