土地财政与土地金融波动  

Discussion on Land Finance and Land Financing Fluctuation

作　　者：段勤勤[1] 安普帅[1] DUAN Qin-qin;AN Pu-Shuai(Qingdao Central Branch,People's Bank of China,Qingdao 266000)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行青岛市中心支行

出　　处：《财务与金融》2019年第6期8-16,共9页Accounting and Finance

摘　　要：本文首先对当前地方政府土地财政、土地金融的运行状况进行了监测分析,然后在选取土地财政和土地金融指标体系的基础上,构建了土地财政综合指数和土地金融综合指数,并深入分析了两个综合指数间的影响关系,实证分析结果表明,短期内二者之间存在相互的正向影响关系,长期土地财政对土地金融存在持续的正向影响。最后结合当前土地财政的现实困境,提出了相关对策建议。With the acceleration of the process of urbanization,local governments have used land to obtain more and more income and funds,and the size of government land mortgage loans has increased substantially.Because of its close relationship with local financing platforms,it is likely to trigger certain financial risks.It makes the current research on the current status of land finance and the impact on land finance become practical.Firstly,in this paper,we monitor and analyze the current local government's land financing and land loan operations,and then build the land financing comprehensive index and the land loan comprehensive index based on the selection of land finance and land loan indicator system,and analyzes the two in-depth.The results of the empirical analysis show that there is a positive relationship between the two in the short term,and the long-term land finance has a positive impact on the land loan.Finally,combined with the current dilemma of land finance,we put forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions.

关 键 词：土地财政 土地出让金 债务风险 向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]