计及不确定性的虚拟电厂双层经济调度  

Economic Dispatch of Virtual Power Plant Considering Uncertainty

作　　者：刘胜 夏家辉 陈波 程璐瑶 于楠 叶元 LIU Sheng;XIA Jia-hui;CHEN Bo;CHENG Lu-yao;YU Nan;YE Yuan(College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;DC Inspection Company,State Grid Hubei Poxver Electric Pozver Company,Yichang 443000,China;Jingdezhen Pozver Supply Company,Jiangxi Electric Power Company,Jingdezhen 333000,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学电气与新能源学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]国网湖北省电力有限公司直流运检公司,湖北宜昌443000 [3]江西电力景德镇供电公司,江西景德镇333000

出　　处：《电力学报》2019年第5期445-452,504,共9页Journal of Electric Power

摘　　要：针对虚拟电厂(Virtual Power Plant,VPP)参与电力市场运营存在着各种不确定影响因素,包括风光波动性、负荷误差性、机组强迫停运率等,研究引入置信水平量化不确定性,并建立VPP双层经济调度模型。在上层模型中,设置置信水平,表现为旋转备用约束满足给定置信水平,根据风光日前预测结果,制定计划调度;在下层模型中,运用随机模拟方法模拟出不确定性因素变化情况,对不确定性因素产生的功率偏差进行功率调整,制定实时调度。研究结合计划调度的收益和实时调度的功率调整成本,计算出VPP净收益。算例分析了虚拟电厂参与电力市场运营中不同置信水平对经济调度的影响,讨论了VPP不同惩罚系数和各种不确定性因素对调度结果的影响,从而验证模型的有效性。Aiming at the influence of various uncertain factors in virtual power plant participation in power market dispatching,including wind and solar fluctuations,load error,and forced outage of generating units,this paper introduces quantitative uncertainty of confidence level and establishes VPP two-layer economic dispatch model.In the upper model,The confidence level is set,which shows that the constraint of rotary reserve satisfies the given confidence level,and the scheduling plan is made according to the forecast results of weather days ahead.In the lower model,the random simulation method is used to simulate the changes of uncertain factors,and the power deviation generated by uncertain factors is adjusted to make real-time scheduling.The net profit of VPP is calculated by combining the profit of scheduling and the power adjustment cost of real-time scheduling.the case analyzes the influence of different confidence levels on economic dispatch when virtual power plant participates in power market operation,discusses the influence of VPP’s different penalty coefficients and various uncertainties on dispatch results,and verifies the effectiveness of the model.

关 键 词：虚拟电厂 置信水平 不确定性 随机模拟 经济调度 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]