基于DPSIR模型的船撞桥风险评价指标体系  

Study on DPSIR-based Index System for Risk Assessment of Ship-bridge Collision

作　　者：李志荣 朱金善[1] 王哲凯 余鉴文 LI Zhirong;ZHU Jinshan;WANG Zhekai;YU Jianwen(Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院

出　　处：《铁道标准设计》2019年第11期70-74,共5页Railway Standard Design

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51309043)

摘　　要：为了客观、科学地评价船撞桥的风险程度,保障船舶穿越桥区和通航桥梁的安全,从分析危险源与船撞桥事故关系出发,提出人、船、桥、环境、管理等5类船撞桥危险源;在遵循"代表性与针对性、指标定量与定性综合、全面性与独立性、科学性与可操作性"等指标筛选原则的基础上,结合DPSIR模型中各指标间的制约关系,从驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应等5方面筛选出12个评价指标,建立船撞桥风险评价指标体系,并对其进行风险评价,进而为跨江河或海湾海峡等通航桥梁的风险评价和风险控制提供理论依据。In order to objectively and scientifically evaluate the risk degree of ship-bridge collision and ensure the safety of the ships that cross the bridge zone waters and the navigation bridge, such dangerous sources of the ship-bridge collision are proposed as human, ship, bridge, environment and management based on the analysis of the relationship between the dangerous source and the ship-bridge collision accident. Based on the constraint relationship of DPSIR index, combined with the principle of "representation and pertinence, quantitative and qualitative integration of indicators, comprehensiveness and independence, scientificity and operability", 12 evaluation indicators are selected in terms of driving force, pressure, status, influence and response. The risk assessment index system for ship-bridge collision is established based on the 12 indicators to conduct risk assessment and provide a theoretical basis for risk assessment and risk control of navigation bridges across rivers or bays.

关 键 词：船撞桥 危险源 风险评价 DPSIR模型 指标体系 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]