基于ASBCS算法的混合Copula邻近水文站年径流量预测  

Prediction of annual runoff from adjacent hydrologic stations by hybrid Copula function based on ASBCS algorithm

作　　者：佘纬[1] 安智 田莎莎[2] 张相来 SHE Wei;AN Zhi;TIAN Shasha;ZHANG Xianglai(College of Mathematics and Statistics South-Central University for Nationalities Wuhan 430074,China;College of Computer Science South-Central University for Nationalities Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中南民族大学数学与统计学学院,武汉430074 [2]中南民族大学计算机科学学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《中南民族大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第4期634-640,共7页Journal of South-Central University for Nationalities：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61771021,61976228);湖北省自然科学基金项目(2018CFC837)

摘　　要：首先对标准的布谷鸟搜索算法(CS)进行改进,提出了自适应搜索平衡布谷鸟搜索算法(ASBCS).其次利用ASBCS算法对混合Copula函数进行参数寻优,建立了基于混合Copula函数的邻近水文站年径流预测模型.最后对模型进行了性能分析和实验验证,结果表明:(1)ASBCS算法在收敛速度和精度方面均优于标准CS算法;(2)当以汉口水文站的年径流量为自变量来预测宜昌水文站的年径流量时,基于ASBCS算法的混合Copula函数比三个单一的Copula函数的预测精度高.Firstly the standard Cuckoo Search(CS)is improved and the Adaptive Search Balanced Cuckoo Search(ASBCS)is proposed.Secondly it is used to optimize the parameters of hybrid Copula function and an adjacent hydrological station prediction model based on the hybrid function is established.Finally,performance analysis and experimental verification of the model are carried out,and the results shows that:(1)the convergence speed and accuracy of ASBCS are superior to CS;(2)when the annual runoff of Hankou hydrologic station is used as the independent variable to predict the annual runoff of Yichang hydrologic station,the hybrid Copula function based on ASBCS is more accurate than the three single Copula functions.

关 键 词：COPULA函数 布谷鸟搜索算法 自适应搜索平衡 预测 年径流 

分 类 号：TP274.5[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]