2010—2017年荆州市日均气温和日相对湿度与流腮发病关联性研究  

Research on the relationship between daily average temperature, relative humidity and incidence of mumps cases in Jingzhou City,2010-2017

作　　者：刘天[1,2] 姚梦雷 梅芳盛[1] 黄继贵[1] 吴杨[3] 陈琦[3] 童叶青[3] LIU Tian;YAO Menglei;MEI Fangsheng;HANG Jigui;WU Yang;CHEN Qi;TONG Yeqing(Jingzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou 434000,Hubei Province,China;Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program,Beijing 100050,China;Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省荆州市疾病预防控制中心,湖北荆州434000 [2]中国现场流行病学培训项目 [3]湖北省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2019年第6期21-25,共5页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：湖北省荆州市2017年卫生科技计划项目(2017130)

摘　　要：目的探讨日均气温、日相对湿度与流腮发病的关联性。方法收集2010-2017年荆州市流行性腮腺炎(流腮)逐日发病数据和同期气象资料,利用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)评价日均气温、日相对湿度对流腮发病的总体效应、累计效应、滞后效应。同时探讨日均气温、日相对湿度对不同年龄、性别、人群分类效应的异同。结果日均气温、日相对湿度对流腮发病的影响均呈非线性关系,且存在滞后效应。分别以日均气温P50(18.35℃)、日相对湿度P50(78.00%)作为参照,在P5~P95范围内,日均气温为3.41℃、日相对湿度78.98%,效应值最大,分别为4.17(95%CI:2.17~8.00)、2.40(95%CI:1.19~4.82)。当日均气温为3.41℃、日相对湿度78.98%,累计效应lag0~30d最大。不同人群中,5~9岁年龄组、女性和学生是日均气温和日相对湿度对流腮发病风险最大的亚组。结论低气温高湿度导致荆州市流腮发病风险增加,5~9岁儿童是敏感人群。Objective To investigate the correlation between the daily average temperature, relative humidity and the incidence of mumps. Methods Mumps cases data and meteorological data in Jingzhou City from 2010 to 2017 were obtained. Distributed lag non-linear models(DLNM) were utilized to investigate the overall effect, cumulative effect, and hysteresis effect of daily average temperature and daily relative humidity on the incidence of mumps. At the same time, the similarities and differences of daily average temperature and daily relative humidity on different ages, genders and populations were discussed. Results There was a non-linear relationship between the daily average temperature, daily relative humidity and the incidence of mumps. The effects appeared to be hysteretic for both the daily average temperature and relative humidity. Taking daily average temperature P50(18.35℃) and daily relative humidity P50(78.00%) as references, in the range of P5-P95, the maximum values of the effects occurred at average daily temperature of 3.41 ℃, and daily relative humidity of 78.98%, which were 4.17( 95% CI: 2.17-8.00), and 2.40(95% CI: 1.19-4.82), respectively. The maximum of cumulative effect lag 0~30 d occurred at the daily average temperature of 3.41℃ and relative humidity of 78.98%. Among the different populations, the 5-9 age group, women, and students were the subgroups with the highest risk of mumps caused by daily average temperature and daily relative humidity. Conclusion Low temperature and high humidity led to an increased risk of mumps in Jingzhou City, and children aged 5-9 were susceptible to mumps.

关 键 词：流行性腮腺炎 气温 相对湿度 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]