基于灰色聚类的某舰炮技术风险评估  

Technical Risk Evaluation of Naval Gun Based on Grey Cluster Method

作　　者：姚忠[1] 康总宽[1] YAO Zhong;KANG Zongkuan(Northwest Institute of Mechanical&Electrical Engineering,Xianyang 712099,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]西北机电工程研究所

出　　处：《火炮发射与控制学报》2019年第4期37-41,共5页Journal of Gun Launch & Control

摘　　要：采用灰色聚类评估方法,对某大口径舰炮的技术风险进行了评估,制定了相应对策,规避了潜在技术风险。建立了技术风险评估模型,选取了评估指标与评估对象;对评估指标和判据进行了量化分析,考虑专家权重,获得了关键技术权重向量;建立了风险等级灰类及灰类的三角白化权函数,对关键技术风险等级及综合技术风险等级进行了量化评估;根据风险评估结果,进行了对策实施,控制和减小了技术风险。基于灰色聚类的技术风险评估方法,可操作性较强,对该舰炮后续研制及其他武器装备研制具有较为实用的参考价值。The technical risk of a large caliber naval gun was evaluated based on grey cluster method,and the corresponding measures were worked out,the technical risks were avoided.Firstly,the evalua-tion model was proposed,the evaluation index and its quantization value were set up,and the evaluation object was selected.Secondly,in view of the expert’s weight,the key technologies weight vector was obtained,the evaluation process and the risk grades were established,meanwhile,the whiten function of each grey classification was set up,based on the works above,the risk grade of key technologies and integrated risk grade of the large caliber naval gun were calculated.In the end,according to the evaluation results,the risk corresponding measures were carried out,which verified the evaluation results,and technical risk of the large caliber naval gun was controlled and reduced.According to the fuzziness and uncertainty of the information,the grey cluster method which used to evaluate the technical risk is effective and economic,and is expected to provide information for the development of naval gun and other weapons.

关 键 词：灰色聚类 舰炮 技术风险 评估指标 关键技术 

分 类 号：TP206[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]