基于前景理论的船舶航路选择辅助决策模型  

An Auxiliary Decision Model of Ship Route Selection Based on Prospect Theory

作　　者：胡佳颖 刘克中[1,2] 杨星[1,2] 陈蜀喆[1] 吴晓烈 刘炯炯 HU Jiaying;LIU Kezhong;YANG Xing;CHEN Shuzhe;WU Xiaolie;LIU Jiongjiong(School of Navigation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Inland Shipping Technology,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学航运学院,武汉430063 [2]武汉理工大学内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室,武汉430063

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2019年第6期1147-1151,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目（51479157）;工信部联装函（[2016]544号）资助

摘　　要：从考虑人的风险偏好在多航路选择中作用的角度构建基于前景理论的船舶航路选择辅助决策模型.在分析影响航路选择因素的基础上,验证船舶航路选择辅助决策模型.基于该模型,通过调整前景理论价值函数的参数来反映不同的个体风险态度,研究不同风险参数下船舶航路选择的变化,探讨人的风险态度在多航路选择问题中的作用.实例结果分析表明,决策者的风险态度变化可以直接影响船舶航路选择的结果,极端的风险态度会减小航路之间的前景价值差值,给航路选择带来困难.From the perspective of considering the role of human risk preference in multi-route selection,an auxiliary decision-making model for ship route selection based on prospect theory was constructed.On the basis of analyzing the factors affecting the route selection,the auxiliary decision-making model for ship route selection was verified.Based on this model,different individual risk attitudes were reflected by adjusting the parameters of the prospect theory value function,changes in ship route selection under different risk parameters were studied,and the role of human risk attitudes in multi-route selection was discussed.The analysis of case results shows that the change of decision makers’risk attitude can directly affect the result of ship route selection,and extreme risk attitude will reduce the difference of foreground value between routes,thus bringing difficulties to route selection.

关 键 词：前景理论 航路选择 风险偏好 多指标灰色关联决策方法 

分 类 号：U697.32[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]