江苏咖啡豹蠹蛾风险分析  

Risk analysis of Zeuzera coffeae Nietner in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：巨云为 朱晨曦 严晓茹 章宇 吴娅莉 赵玉玲 王克春 李永荣 JU Yunwei;ZHU Chenxi;YAN Xiaoru;ZHANG Yu;WU Yali;ZHAO Yuling;WANG Kechun;LI Yongrong(Co-Innovation Center for the Sustainable Forestry in Southern China,College of Forestry,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Suzhou High-tech Zone(Huqiu District)Forestry Station,Suzhou 215010,China;Jiangsu Shuimu Agricultural Landscape Co.,Ltd.,Jurong 212400,China;Nanjing Green Earth Thin Shell Pecan Technology Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210014,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学林学院,南方现代林业协同创新中心,江苏南京210037 [2]苏州高新区(虎丘区)林业站,江苏苏州215010 [3]江苏水木农景股份有限公司,江苏句容212400 [4]南京绿宙薄壳山核桃科技有限公司,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第6期207-210,共4页Journal of Nanjing Forestry University：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：中央财政林业科技推广示范资金项目(苏【2017】TG02);江苏经济林病虫害调查项目;江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

摘　　要：【目的】对咖啡豹蠹蛾危害薄壳山核桃的风险进行综合分析,确定其危险程度,为咖啡豹蠹蛾的防控提供参考。【方法】于2016-2017年在江苏南京六合、镇江句容薄壳山核桃种植基地各选取4块50 m×50 m样地调查咖啡豹蠹蛾对薄壳山核桃林的危害情况,采用对角线法在每块样地中选取7个样方,用隔行取样法在每个样方选取10株样树,记录每个样方中的样株数、树龄、树高以及受害株数量,统计受害株率。根据林业有害生物风险分析指标体系对咖啡豹蠹蛾的危险程度进行定量分析,并采用综合分析法进行了风险评估。【结果】调查地3年生薄壳山核桃的受害株率为41.43%,4年生受害株率为32.86%,5年生受害株率为22.14%,6年生受害株率为17.86%。咖啡豹蠹蛾危害风险分析指标及运算值为:①分析区域内分布情况,风险值为2.00;②传入、定殖和扩散的可能性,风险值为3.00;③潜在危害性,风险值为1.80;④受害寄主经济重要性(受害对象的重要性),风险值为3.00;⑤危险性管理难度,风险值为1.67。根据各项风险分析指标计算得咖啡豹蠹蛾的风险综合评价(R)值为2.22。【结论】通过对咖啡豹蠹蛾传播、危害及风险性分析,认为该虫是薄壳山核桃高度危险的有害生物。应加强对咖啡豹蠹蛾虫情的监测,发现后及时防控,控制其虫口密度,以降低对薄壳山核桃经济、生态等效益的负面影响。【Objective】The risk analysis of Carya illinoinensis Koch harmed by Zeuzera coffeae Nietner was conducted to determine the degree of hazard, which provided a reference for the prevention and control of Z. coffeae in the production of C. illinoinensis.【Method】From 2016 to 2017, four sample lands(50 m × 50 m) of C. illinoinensis Koch planting bases in Luhe of Nanjing and Jurong of Zhenjiang of Jiangsu Province, were investigated for the damage caused by Z. coffeae Nietner to the C. illinoinensis Koch forest. Seven sample plots were selected from each sample land by the diagonal method, and ten sample plots from each sample were selected by interlaced sampling. The calculation method of the damaged rate of C. illinoinensis Koch is the total number of damaged C. illinoinensis Koch divided by the total number of plants investigated. According to the evaluation criteria of forestry pest risk analysis, the risk degree of Z. coffeae was quantitatively analyzed for the first time, and the risk analysis was carried out by a comprehensive analysis method.【Result】The damaged rate of C. illinoinensis Koch was 41.43% for 3-year-old victims;the rate of 4-year-old victims was 32.86%;the rate of 5-year-old victims was 22.14%;the rate of 6-year-old victims was 17.86%. Based on the rules of pest risk analysis, we categorized the risk level of Z. coffeae Nietner using five indexes: the distribution, potential degree of damage, economical value of infected host plants, possibility of transmission and spreading, and difficulty of risk management in Jiangsu. The values of the five indexes were calculated as 2.00, 3.00, 1.80, 3.00 and 1.67, respectively. The overall risk value of Z. coffeae Nietner was 2.22. 【Conclusion】Through the analysis of the spread, harm, and risk of Z. coffeae Nietner, it is considered to be a highly dangerous pest for C. illinoinensis Koch. During production, the monitoring of Z. coffeae Nietner should be strengthened, and timely detection and prevention should be carried out to control the densi

关 键 词：薄壳山核桃 咖啡豹蠹蛾 风险分析 江苏 

分 类 号：S763.42[农业科学—森林保护学]