农业劳动力老龄化、农业资本投入与土地利用效率——基于鲁豫皖三省固定农户跟踪调查  

Aging of agricultural labor, agricultural capital investment and land use efficiency:Based on a longitudinal survey of farmers in Shandong, Henan and Anhui

作　　者：邱俊杰 任倩 余劲[1] QIU Junjie;REN Qian;YU Jin(College of Economics and Management,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;College of Economics and Management,Shaanxi University of Science&Technology,Xi’an 710021,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌712100 [2]陕西科技大学经济管理学院,西安710021

出　　处：《资源科学》2019年第11期1982-1996,共15页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目（71573208;71874139）;国家重点研发计划“政府间国际科技创新合作”重点专项（2017YFE0181100）

摘　　要：在耕地不断减少和农业劳动力老龄化程度日益加深的双重背景下,提高土地利用效率对保障农业产出以及国家粮食安全具有重要意义,但农业劳动力老龄化对土地利用效率的影响学界尚未形成一致的定论.本文通过阐述农业劳动力老龄化、农业资本投入与土地利用效率三者之间的理论机制,运用中介效应模型、面板阈值模型,基于粮食主产区鲁豫皖三省621个固定农户5年跟踪调查数据进行实证分析.结果表明:①农业劳动力老龄化不仅直接促进土地利用效率的提高,还通过农业资本投入间接影响土地利用效率,即农业资本投入在农业劳动力老龄化与土地利用效率之间具有中介效应,该中介效应约占总效应的70.286%;②农业资本投入对提高土地利用效率的促进作用受到农业劳动力年龄双重阈值效应的影响,阈值分别为47岁和70岁,农业资本投入的边际报酬呈现出“U”型变化规律.因此短期内对于农业劳动力老龄化不应该持悲观态度,应提高农资利用率,完善农业社会化服务体系;长期来看应完善农村养老保障体系,培育农业新型经营主体.Under the background of the continuous reduction of cultivated land and the aging problem of the agricultural labor force,improving land use efficiency become great significance for safeguarding agricultural output and national food security in China.However,the impact of the aging problem of the agricultural labor force on land use efficiency has not yet reached a consensus in academia.This article expounds the mechanism between agricultural labor aging,agricultural capital investment,and land use efficiency,and uses the mediation model and panel threshold model to conduct empirical analyses based on a five-year longitudinal study of farmers in the main grain producing provinces of Shandong,Henan,and Anhui.The results show that the aging of agricultural labor not only directly promotes the improvement of land use efficiency,but also indirectly affects land use efficiency through agricultural capital investment.That is,agricultural capital investment has a mediating effect between the aging of agricultural labor and land use efficiency,and this effect accounts for 70.286% of the total effect.At the same time,the promotion effect of agricultural capital investment on improving land use efficiency is affected by the double threshold effect of agricultural labor age.The thresholds are 47 and 70 respectively,and the marginal return of agricultural capital investment shows a“U”pattern of change.Therefore,pessimism about the impact of the aging of the agricultural labor force in the short term is unsupported.We should improve the utilization rate of agricultural capital and improve the agricultural social service system.In the long run,we need to improve the rural old-age support system and cultivate new agricultural management entities.

关 键 词：农业劳动力老龄化 农业资本投入 土地利用效率 中介效应 面板阈值模型 粮食主产区 粮食安全 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]