返贫现象的内在逻辑：脆弱性脱贫理论及验证  

The Internal Logic of Poverty-Returning: Theory and Verification of Vulnerable Poverty Alleviation

作　　者：周迪[1] 王明哲 Zhou Di;Wang Mingzhe(Center for Cliometrics Studies of China,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510006,China;School of Journalism&Communication,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学中国计量经济史研究中心,广东广州510006 [2]广东外语外贸大学新闻与传播学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《财经研究》2019年第11期126-139,共14页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学“十三五”规划基金项目(GD17YYJ03);广东省软科学项目重点项目(2015A070703019)

摘　　要：在脱贫攻坚决胜阶段,防止脱贫又返贫现象的发生,巩固已有脱贫成果是实现全面小康社会的必要举措。为此,文章创新性地提出了脆弱性脱贫理论,以期能解释出现返贫现象的内在逻辑,并进一步论证了如何降低和防止脱贫又返贫。利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010-2014年三轮微观调查数据,文章首先采用倾向得分匹配法验证了家庭资产禀赋能防止返贫现象的发生,随后构建"条件Markov模型"探究一般情景和风险冲击情景下,不同资产禀赋水平对"脱贫—返贫"状态转移的影响,最后讨论了脱贫未返贫路径机制。研究发现:资产禀赋能防止返贫现象发生。具体地,生产资产禀赋最明显;资产禀赋防止家庭从轻度脱贫返回为浅度贫困的作用最明显;当存在风险冲击时,资产禀赋的作用将增强;而当地区存在完善的公共服务体系或高福利水平以及个体存在借款行为时,资产禀赋的作用将减弱。因此,文章认为将资产指标纳入贫困动态调整体系,进一步完善公共福利体系,从根本上鼓励贫困家庭从事生产经营活动并实施教育技能培训,将有助于巩固已有的脱贫成果。Since the implementation of the accurate poverty alleviation policy,the number of poor people in China has been shrinking,but the phenomenon of returning to poverty also occurs from time to time.To ensure that everyone is out of poverty,preventing and eliminating poverty-returning after out of poverty must be the key work in the current stage of poverty alleviation.To this end,this paper discusses the reason why there is the phenomenon of poverty-returning after out of poverty as well as the temporary poverty reduction.This paper innovatively proposes the theory of vulnerable poverty alleviation to explain it,verifies the theory by empirical analysis,and further demonstrates how to prevent the problem of poverty-returning after out of poverty.This is not only a necessary measure to consolidate the existing achievements in poverty alleviation,and achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way,but also a practical problem that needs to be highly valued in consolidating the achievements in poverty alleviation after 2020.After the poor have been lifted out of poverty,when they are affected by other external events,they are likely to return to poverty again if lacking the buffering and protection of assets,vice versa.Therefore,the situation that the family transfers from poverty to non-poverty but with no assets or few assets is called vulnerable poverty alleviation in this paper.Then the paper uses the three rounds of micro-survey data from 2010 to2014 provided by China Family Panel Survey(CFPS)to verify it.Firstly,the propensity score matching method is used to verify the effect of asset endowment on reducing the probability of returning to poverty.Then the"conditional Markov model"is constructed to explore the impact of different types of asset endowment on the state of"poverty alleviation—poverty-returning"under the general scenario and risk shock scenarios.Finally,the path that out of poverty but not return to poverty is discussed.The results indicate that there is a significant difference

关 键 词：贫困 脆弱性脱贫 资产 转移概率 条件Markov模型 

分 类 号：F323.89[经济管理—产业经济]