基于CA-Markov模型的河北坝上沙化区土地利用变化动态模拟研究  

Dynamic simulation of land use change in Bashang desertification area of Hebei province based on CA-Markov model

作　　者：彭博[1] 范慧涛 牛庆花 郭宇嘉 谷建才[1] PENG Bo;FAN Huitao;NIU Qinghua;GUO Yujia;GU Jiancai(College of Forestry,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 071000,China)Ab)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学林学院

出　　处：《林业与生态科学》2019年第4期393-400,共8页Forestry and Ecological Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0500802);2015年河北省高等学校科学技术研究计划项目(Z2015079)

摘　　要：为探究区域土地利用动态变化特征,预测分析未来土地利用发展趋势,选取2004年、2009年和2014年TM遥感影像解译数据,结合土地利用重心迁移模型和土地利用单一动态模型等分析河北坝上沙化区2004-2014年土地利用动态变化特征,利用CA-Markov模型对研究区10 a后(2024年)土地利用发展趋势进行模拟预测。结果表明:(1)10 a间耕地面积持续增加,从121535.19 hm^2增加到134884.11 hm^2,建设用地迅速增加,从9329.41 hm^2增加到11604.62 hm^2,林地和草地面积不断减少,分别从92361.00 hm^2、94337.79 hm^2减少到84638.08 hm^2、86384.71 hm^2,水域面积变化较小,由7699.38 hm^2增加到7751.25 hm^2;耕地、林地、草地和建设用地有明显的方向性移动;(2)对2014年土地利用变化进行模拟预测,与解译数据作对比,其Kappa系数为0.7593,表明模拟预测精度较高,具有良好的可靠性和适用性;(3)2014-2024年预测结果表明耕地、林地和建设用地呈增加趋势,草地和水域面积减少。2014-2024年研究区土地利用变化依旧十分活跃,荒漠化防治压力仍然很大,应在沙化区保留足够的生态用地,节约集约利用建设用地,以减缓土地沙化。In order to investigate the dynamic characteristics of regional land use,predict and analyze the future development trend of land use,and provide a scientific basis for the rational use of land resources,The Bashang area in Hebei province was took as the research area,and the TM remote sensing image interpretation of 2004,2009 and 2014 was selected to interpret the data.The land use gravity transfer model and land use dynamic model were combined to analyze the land use change of 2004-2014 in the Bashang area of Hebei province.The CA-Markov model was used to simulate the land use development trend of the study area 10 years later(2024).The results showed that:(1)In 10 years,the area of cultivated land continued to increase,from 121535.19 hm^2 to 134884.11 hm^2.The construction land increased rapidly from 9329.41 hm^2 to 11604.62 hm^2.The area of forest land and grassland decreased continuously from 92361.00 hm^2 and 94337.79 hm^2 to 84638.08 hm^2,and 86384.71 hm^2,respectively.The water area changed a little,from 7699.38 hm^2 to 7751.25 hm^2.Cultivated land,woodland,grassland and construction land had obvious directional movement.(2)The chanes in land use of 2014 was simulated and compared with the interpretation data,and the kappa coefficient is 0.7593,which indicated that the simulation prediction accuracy was high and had good reliability and applicability.(3)The forecast results from 2014 to 2024 indicated that cultivated land,woodland and construction land would be increasing,while grassland and water area would be decreasing.The changes is still very active from 2014 to 2024,and the pressure of desertification control is still great.Sufficient ecological land should be reserved in the desertification area to save the intensive use of construction land for slowing down land desertification.

关 键 词：沙化区 土地利用变化 CA-Markov模型 动态模拟 

分 类 号：S17[农业科学—农业基础科学]