农村居民收入变化对贫困的影响:基于省级面板数据  

Impacts of rural residents’ income on poverty based on provincial panel data in China

作　　者：龙开胜[1] 朱婷婷[1] LONG Kai-sheng;ZHU Ting-ting(College of Public Administration,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210095,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2019年第6期907-916,共10页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目(2017ZDIXM097);江苏高校“青蓝工程”优秀青年骨干教师培养计划项目~~

摘　　要：增加农村居民收入是减少贫困的重要工具,探讨农村居民收入变化对贫困的影响具有十分重要的现实意义。基于农村居民收入与贫困变化的内在逻辑,利用2010-2017年中国分省农村居民收入和贫困人口规模、贫困发生率数据,采用面板数据动态计量分析方法,分析农村居民不同类型收入变化对贫困的影响。结果表明,研究时期内,农村贫困随着居民收入的增加而减少;全国层面农村居民财产净收入和转移净收入变化对贫困人口规模和贫困发生率均有持续负向作用,是影响贫困的主要因素,工资性收入和经营净收入的影响较弱;转移净收入对贫困发生率变化的贡献度高于其对贫困人口规模变化的贡献,财产净收入对贫困人口规模变化的贡献高于其对贫困发生率变化的贡献。此外,农村居民收入变化对贫困的影响存在地域差异。因此,今后扶贫工作应根据当地贫困人口规模和贫困发生率情况,有针对性地增加贫困人口的不同类型收入,提升减贫精准程度。Increasing the income of rural residents is a vital tool for poverty alleviation. Therefore, it is of a great practical significance to discuss the impacts of rural residents’ income on poverty. On the basis of inner logical relationship between income and poverty and the panel data of rural residents’ income in China from 2010 to 2017, this paper discussed the impacts of rural residents’ income on poverty by a dynamic econometric model. Results show that, as income of rural residents increased, poverty was alleviated. The changes of the net income of property and transfer income of rural residents, which has a lasting negative impact on the population in poverty and the incidence of poverty at the national scale, are the major factors affecting poverty. The wage income and the net business income have weak impacts on poverty. The net transfer income of rural residents has made a greater contribution to the change of the incidence of poverty than to the change of the population in poverty, and the net property income of rural residents has made a greater contribution to the change of the population in poverty than to the change of incidence of poverty. In addition, there exist spatial differences between the impacts of the change of income of rural residents on poverty. Finally, to improve the targeted poverty alleviation, poverty relief programs should increase different types of income of the poor according to the population and incidence of poverty of the targeted regions in the future.

关 键 词：农村居民收入 贫困人口规模 贫困发生率 财产性收入 转移性收入 动态计量分析 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济]