1961—2018年黑龙江省干湿气候的时空格局特征  

Spatial-temporal Pattern of Dry and Wet Climate in Heilongjiang Province in 1961-2018

作　　者：李险峰 朱海霞 李秀芬 王萍 姜丽霞 赵慧颖 Li Xianfeng;Zhu Haixia;Li Xiufen;Wang Ping;Jiang Lixia;Zhao Huiying(Hei-longjiang Province Hydraulic Research Institute,Harbin 150080,P.R.China;Innovation and Opening Laboratory of Eco-Meteorology in Northeast China,CMA,Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Sciences)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省水利科学研究院,哈尔滨150080 [2]中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室(黑龙江省气象科学研究所

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2019年第12期73-78,99,共7页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31671576,31671575,31801253);中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室开放研究基金项目(stqx2019zd02);黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(D2018007);中国气象局预报核心技术(CMAHX20160205)

摘　　要：黑龙江省作为中国粮仓和东北亚生态屏障,旱涝对该区域农业生产及生态安全具有重要影响。为明确区域气候干湿状况的时空格局特征,根据黑龙江省62个气象站点1961-2018年逐日降水量资料,采用标准化降水指数(ISP),利用气候趋势、Mexican Hat小波分析、经验正交函数(EOF)等方法,分析了黑龙江省近60年的气候干湿时空格局特征。结果表明:1961-2018年,黑龙江省年尺度标准化降水指数(ISP12)值在波动中呈微弱的增加态势,气候状况总体表现为湿润化趋势;季节尺度上,春季、秋季、冬季的气候均呈湿润化趋势,其中春季和冬季湿润化趋势较明显,均通过了0.01水平显著性检验,夏季总体呈不显著的干旱化趋势。年尺度ISP12存在7 a主周期、28 a次周期,春季ISP3(3个月尺度的ISP值)存在24 a主周期,夏季ISP3存在7 a主周期,秋季ISP3存在7 a主周期、3 a次周期,冬季ISP3存在28 a主周期、2 a次周期。且在未来一段时间内,黑龙江省年和季节气候在其主周期内均将处于湿润期。年气候干湿状况的空间变化具有3种典型模态,4个季节则均具备2种典型模态,年和四季的第一典型模态对应的典型场分布均为正值,具有全局一致型的空间变化特征,年季节尺度的气候整体干湿变化基本同步。松嫩和三江两大平原区是区域气候干湿变化的敏感区域。As the granary of China and the ecological barrier of Northeast Asia,drought and flood have an important impact on agricultural production and ecological security in this region.Based on the daily precipitation data of 62 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2018,the spatial-temporal patterns of dry and wet climate in Heilongjiang Province in recent 60 years were analyzed by using standardized precipitation index(ISP),climate trend,Mexican Hat wavelet analysis and empirical orthogonal function(EOF).The results showed that from 1961 to 2018,the annual ISP12 in Heilongjiang Province showed a weak increase trend,and the climate presented a wetting trend.The climate in spring,autumn and winter showed a trend of wetting,especially in spring and winter,which passed the 0.01 level significance test,and showed a non-significant trend of drought in summer.The periodic regularities are as follows:annual SPI12 have 7 a main period and 28 a hypo-period.ISP3 in spring have 24 a main period,in summer have 7 a main period,in autumn have 7 a main period and 3 a hypo-period,in winter have 28 a main period and 2 a hypo-period.And in the future,the annual and seasonal climate in Heilongjiang Province will remain wet period in its main cycle.Annual ISP12 had three typical modes,while the four seasonal ISP3 all had two typical modes.The typical field corresponding to the first eigenvector is positive and shows the consistency of annual and seasonal dry and wet climate variation,indicating that the overall climate dryness and humidity changes at the annual and seasonal scales are basically synchronous.Songnen plain and Sanjiang plain are sensitive regions to the regional climate change.

关 键 词：标准化降水指数 时空格局 干湿状况 气候变化 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]