近60年淮河流域夏季降水的变化特征  

Variation Characteristics of Summer Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin in Recent 60 Years

作　　者：冯志刚[1] 梁树献[1] 徐胜[1] 徐时进[1] 李文杰 FENG Zhigang;LIANG Shuxian;XU Sheng;XU Shijin;LI Wenjie(Huaihe River Commission,MWR,Bengbu 233001,China)

机构地区：[1]淮河水利委员会

出　　处：《水文》2019年第6期85-89,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：十三五国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402703,2017YFC0405601)

摘　　要：利用淮河流域1961~2017年夏季降水量资料,运用线性回归、滑动平均、Morlet小波、滑动T检验和Lepage检验方法分析了流域夏季降水的周期性特征和年代际变化特征。结果表明:流域夏季降水在大部分时段都具有明显的年际振荡特征,从20世纪90年代开始年代际振荡特征非常突出;流域夏季降水具有2~3a的年际变化周期和18~24a的年代际变化周期,1961~1967年、1997~2006年期间2~3a的短周期振荡非常显著,1990年以后18~24a的周期变得非常明显;在2000年前后,流域33~35°N纬向带状区域发生了显著的年代际突变现象,突变后与之前相比夏季降水增多了40%~60%;在2009年,流域沿淮河一线以北至35°N范围内再次发生显著的年代际突变现象,突变后降水减少了20%以上,此次年代际突变范围更广也更加显著,其物理成因值得进一步研究。Based on the summer precipitation data of the Huaihe River Basin during 1961-2017, the periodic characteristics and inter-decadal variability of summer precipitation were analyzed by using linear regression, Morlet wavelet analysis, moving T test and Lepage test. The results indicate that summer precipitation shows obvious inter-annual oscillation during most periods, and the inter-decadal variation becomes notable from the 1990 s. The summer precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin has an inter-annual oscillation period of 2-3 years and an inter-decadal oscillation period of 18-24 years. The small-scale of 2-3 years is remarkable during 1961-1967 and 1997-2006 and the large-scale of 18-24 years becomes obvious after 1990. A remarkable increase of summer precipitation in the zonal region between 33° N and 35° N in the Huaihe River Basin occurred around 2000, and the rainfall increased by 40%-60%. The inter-decadal changes of summer precipitation happenned again around 2009 over the zonal region between the Huaihe River and 35°N, and the rainfall decreased more than 20%. The latest climatic shift is more remarkable and exhibits over larger area, moreover the physical causes deserve more deeply research.

关 键 词：淮河流域 夏季降水 周期性 突变性 Lepage检验 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]