中国省域经济周期波动与协动性研究  

Research on the Business Cycle Fluctuation and Its Co-movements in China’s Provinces since the Reform and Opening-up

作　　者：杨开忠 欧阳一漪 王宇光[3] Yang Kai-zhong;Ouyang Yi-yi;Wang Yu-guang(Institute of Urban and Environmental Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Science,Beijing 100028;School of Government,Peking University,Beijing 100871;School of Urban Economics and Public Administration,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所,北京100028 [2]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871 [3]首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院,北京100070

出　　处：《经济纵横》2019年第11期40-54,F0002,共16页Economic Review Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“我国产业集聚演进与新动能培育发展研究”(编号:71733001)的成果

摘　　要：通过研究1979-2017年我国31个省(区市)经济周期的波动特征和协动性水平发现,随着改革开放的不断深入,我国省域经济周期波动呈现平滑化、微波化特征,1995年后协动性水平明显增强,密度、距离、分割、异质性(即"4D")对省域经济周期协动性均具有显著影响。在"4D"影响中,地理毗邻与周期协动性负相关,反映出我国相邻各省域间分割严重,行政和贸易壁垒问题较强;人均GDP差距与周期协动性正相关,反映出我国省域经济周期协动性水平整体虽然提高,但人均收入扩大的趋势尚未改善。在分区域"4D"影响分析中发现,东部地区受外商直接投资度、产业结构差异影响最大,中部地区受对外开放度、人均GDP差距影响最大,西部地区受对外开放度、产业结构差异影响最大。地理毗邻变量在东、中、西部三地的回归结果均不显著,说明三地内部省域分割仍然比较严重,区域一体化程度有待提高。This paper studies the fluctuation characteristics and co-movements of the economic cycle of 31 provinces and regions in China from 1979 to 2017,and explores the influencing factors of the economic cycle of the provinces.The study finds that with the continuous deepening of reform and opening up,the economic cycle fluctuations of provinces in China show smooth and microwave characteristics,and the level of co-movements in the later period of reform and opening up is obviously enhanced;the"4 D"elements of density,distance,division and difference,has a significant impact on the economic cycle of the provinces and regions.Among them,geographical proximity and cyclical co-movements are negatively correlated,reflecting the serious division between neighboring provinces in China,and there are relatively strong administrative and trade barriers.The GDP per capita gap and cyclical co-movements are positively correlated,indicating that although the level of cyclical co-movements in China increased in the later period of reform and opening up,it did not improve the trend of per capita income expansion.In the sub-regional regression to explore the differential effects of"4 D"elements in different regions,it is found that the eastern region is most affected by the geographical distance,the foreign direct investment degree in the segmentation variables,and the industrial structure differences in the heterogeneous variables.The central region is most affected by the economic density,the degree of openness in the segmentation variables,and the per capita GDP gap in the heterogeneous variables.The western region is most affected by economic density,geographical distance,openness in segmentation variables,and industrial structure differences in heterogeneous variables.The regression results of geographically adjacent variables in the three regions are not significant,indicating that the provincial division within the three regions is still relatively serious,and the degree of regional integration needs to be improved.

关 键 词：区域 经济周期 协动性 4D 面板回归模型 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济]