房价上涨是否显著增加有房家庭的消费？——基于中国家庭行为的理论与实证分析  

Does the Rise of Housing Price Significantly Increase Household’s Consumption?: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis from Chinese Households

作　　者：颜建晔[1,2] 张超 祝伟 YAN Jian-ye;ZHANG Chao;ZHU Wei

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学"一带一路"PPP发展研究中心 [2]北京大学新结构经济学研究院 [3]对外经济贸易大学金融学院 [4]对外经济贸易大学保险学院

出　　处：《改革》2019年第11期63-74,共12页Reform

摘　　要：理论分析表明,在适当的条件下,房价上涨具有财富效应,而家庭遗产动机、潜在换房需求会降低房产的财富效应。运用"中国家庭追踪调查"数据对上述理论预测进行实证检验,通过控制房产交易影响建立面板数据以清晰地刻画房产的财富效应。实证结果显示,遗产动机、潜在换房需求显著降低了房产的财富效应,在控制遗产动机、潜在换房需求的影响后,房产的财富效应显著存在。有房家庭由于遗产动机、潜在换房需求的存在,房价上涨带来的财富效应被明显抑制,其消费支出上升幅度有限。与此同时,房价上涨会显著增加无房家庭的购房压力,可能产生明显的消费挤出。Theoretical analysis shows that under appropriate conditions, the increase of housing price has wealth effect, while the family bequest motives and potential replacement demand will reduce the effect. This paper makes an empirical test of the above theoretical prediction by using the panel data from China Family Panel Studies. After controlling the noisy influence from housing transaction, we establish a clear depiction for the wealth effect of house based on panel analysis. The empirical results show that the wealth effect of housing is significantly reduced by the motivation of family bequest motives and potential replacement demand. After controlling the influence of the family bequest motives and potential replacement demand, the wealth effect of housing is significant. The wealth effect of house is significantly constrained under the presence of bequest motives and/or potential replacement demand,as a result of which, the increase of consumption expenditure is limited. At the same time, the rise of housing prices will obviously burden a pressure on those who have not bought a house(apartment) yet,which may probably crowd out consumption.

关 键 词：房价上涨 遗产动机 家庭消费 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济]