基于Ramsey模型的房地产泡沫测度及时空演变特征  

Real estate bubble measurement and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics based on Ramsey model

作　　者：岑唯 丁元耀[1] CEN Wei;DING Yuan-yao(Business School,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学商学院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《科技与管理》2019年第6期31-36,共6页Science-Technology and Management

基　　金：黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(G2017003)。

摘　　要：房地产使我国国民经济的支柱产业,房地产价格的稳定关乎国民经济和人民生活的稳定和谐发展,判断房地产价格是否存在泡沫及其泡沫程度的大小是稳定房地产价格的重要前提,也是实施宏观调控政策的依据。本文利用Ramsey理论模型,推导出房地产的基础价格,从而利用实际价格对基础价格的偏离测得了中国35个主要城市2011—2018年的房地产价格泡沫,最后利用矢量数据符号法探究其时空演变格局。研究发现:中国房地产市场是存在泡沫的,且在不同的时期存在正泡沫和负泡沫。房地产泡沫普遍存在于每个城市,但是不同的城市之间差异较大,同个城市的不同时期差也较大;房地产价格泡沫最为严重的并不是房价绝对值最高的城市;因此,应该根据各个城市的实际情况,利用“看得见的手”,制定差别化的政策来调控房价。Real estate makes the pillar industry of China s national economy,the stability of real estate price is related to the stable and harmonious development of national economy and people s life.Judging whether the price of real estate bubble and its degree is the important premise of stabilizing the real estate price,it is also the basis for implementing macro-control policies.In this paper,we use the Ramsey theoretical model to deduce the basic price of real estate,and then use real price to deviate from the base price to measure the real estate price bubble of China s 35 main cities in 2011—2018.Finally,we use vector data notation to explore the temporal and spatial evolution pattern of China s real estate market.The conclusion is that bubbles exist in China s real estate market,and there are positive bubbles and negative bubbles in different periods.The real estate bubble generally exists in every city,but the difference between different cities is large,and the difference between the different periods of the same city is larger.Therefore,according to the actual situation of each city,we should make use of the“visible hand”to formulate differentiated policies to regulate housing prices.

关 键 词：RAMSEY模型 房地产价格 基础价值 时空演变 

分 类 号：F201[经济管理—国民经济]