基于资产重估视角的中国房地产价格研究  

A Study of China’s Real Estate Prices from the Perspective of Asset Revaluation

作　　者：孙少岩[1,2] 刘芮嘉 Sun Shaoyan;Liu Ruijia(China Research Center for State-owned Economy,Changchun 130012,China;College of Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学中国国有经济研究中心,长春130012 [2]吉林大学经济学院,长春130012

出　　处：《学术交流》2019年第11期136-148,192,共14页Academic Exchange

摘　　要：进入21世纪以来,中国房地产市场发展迅猛,房地产价格也成为影响国内资本市场价格波动乃至金融系统稳定的重要因素,研究房地产价格重估问题意义重大。基于资产重估的宏观背景,针对我国房地产市场发展特点选取三大类12项研究指标,可从供给、需求和信贷三个角度分别测度价格波动程度,划定检测区间,建立完整的检测指数体系,对我国房地产价格进行重估检测。结果表明,我国房地产市场自2003年以来至今已经经历并将持续经历资产重估过程,个别年份出现泡沫预警,但尚未达到泡沫经济状态。在应对房地产资产重估的问题上,要加强货币政策对资产重估问题的关注,做好房地产调控政策与货币政策的配合工作,并健全“双支柱”框架应对资产价格重估。Since the entry into the 21st century,China's real estate market has developed rapidly,and the real estate price has become an important factor affecting the price fluctuation of domestic capital market and even the stability of the financial system.It is of great significance to study the issue of real estate price revaluation.Based on the macro-background of asset revaluation,this paper selects 12 research indicators from three categories according to the development characteristics of China's real estate market,measures the degree of price fluctuation from three angles of supply,demand and credit,delimits the detection range,establishes a complete detection index system,and carries out revaluation detection on China's real estate prices.The results show that China's real estate market has experienced and will continue to experience asset revaluation process since 2003,and there is bubble warnings in several years,but it has not yet reached the bubble economy.In dealing with the problem of real estate assets revaluation,we should strengthen the attention of monetary policy to the problem of assets revaluation,handle well with the coordination of real estate regulatory policy and monetary policy,and improve the"two pillar"framework to deal with asset price revaluation.

关 键 词：资产重估 房地产价格 检测指标体系 测度及预警 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]