中美林产品贸易碳流动的测算及影响因素研究  

On the Measurement and Influencing Factors of Carbon Flow in Sino-US Forest Products Trade

作　　者：管志杰 郭智远 Guan Zhijie;Guo Zhiyuan

机构地区：[1]常州大学商学院

出　　处：《常州大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第6期53-61,共9页Journal of Changzhou University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金一般项目“全球治理非法采伐的贸易影响及对策研究”（13BGL101）;江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划资助项目“中国木质林产品贸易碳流动测算及对策研究”（SJKY19_2133）

摘　　要：林产品贸易碳流动会影响一国碳库储碳量核算报告,对一国提交减排清单、履行减排责任具有重要的影响。首先,利用储量变化法、大气流动法、生产法分别对中美林产品贸易碳流动进行测算,结果显示储量变化法对核算我国储碳量最为有利,生产法次之,而大气流动法下中美林产品贸易则增加了碳排放源;其次,运用引力模型,对环境治理费用占比之差、林产品进出口贸易量之差、人均GDP之差、贸易开放度之差等影响中美林产品贸易碳流动的因素进行实证分析,得出不同计量方法下,各因素产生的影响存在差别的结论。最后,从提高我国碳储角度出发,结合影响因素分析的相关结论,提出了提高我国对外开放度、扩展多元化出口市场、改善林产品出口结构、引领全球环境治理等政策建议。The carbon flow of forest products trade affects a country's carbon inventory accounting report,and exerts important impacts on a country's submission of emission reduction list and performance of emission reduction responsibility.By using the stock-change approach,the atmospheric-flow approach and the production approach respectively to calculate the changes of the carbon flow of Sino-US forest products trade,it demonstrates that the stock-change approach is the most conducive to China's carbon stock accounting,followed by the production approach,while the Sino-US forest products trade has become a carbon source by the atmospheric-flow approach.Secondly,based on the gravitational model,an empirical analysis is carried out of the factors affecting the carbon flow of Sino-US forest products trade which include the difference between the proportions of environmental management costs;the difference between the import and export trade volumes of forest products;the difference between GDP per capita and the difference in trade openness,and the conclusion is reached that by different measurements,influences produced by different factors are different.Finally,from the perspective of improving China's carbon stock,combined with the conclusion through the analysis of the influencing factors,suggestions are put forward such as further opening to the outside world,expanding diversified export markets,improving the export structure of forest products and leading the global environmental governance.

关 键 词：林产品贸易 引力模型 碳流动 储量变化法 大气流动法 生产法 

分 类 号：F307.2[经济管理—产业经济]