台风“摩羯”(1814)的路径特点与预报分析  

Analysis of characteristics and forecasting of track of Typhoon YAGI(2018)

作　　者：高留喜[1] 杨晓霞[1] 刘畅[1] 田莹 郑怡[1] GAO Liuxi;YANG Xiaoxia;LIU Chang;TIAN Ying;ZHENG Yi(Shandong Meteorological Observatory,Jinan 250031,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象台

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2019年第4期108-115,共8页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160208)

摘　　要：2018年8月13—16日台风“摩羯”(1814)及其残余低压环流影响山东,造成区域性暴雨或大暴雨。利用常规气象观测资料和区域自动气象站、天气雷达、气象卫星等资料及数值天气预报产品对此过程进行分析,总结了“摩羯”的路径特点。此次台风“摩羯”路径特殊,并出现突变。通过对“摩羯”的路径预报仔细分析,得出台风路径预报着眼点和部分有指示意义的预报指标。环流形势分析是预报台风路径的一个重要前提,大陆高压显著增强是环流形势调整的一个信号,是预报“摩羯”路径的一个关键因素;台风前进方向的对流层温度脊线和500 hPa正涡度轴线对台风未来路径有良好的指示作用。分析结果能够为提高山东台风路径预报的准确率提供参考。From 13 to 16 August 2018,Typhoon YAGI and its residual low-pressure circulation affected Shandong,causing regional heavy rainfall or torrential rainfall.Using conventional meteorological data,data from automatic weather stations,weather radar,and meteorological satellite,and numerical weather forecasting products,the process of Typhoon YAGI is analyzed and the characteristics of its track are summarized.YAGI has a special track with a sudden track change.The outline of forecasting YAGI s track and some indicative indexes are obtained by carefully analyzing meteorological data.It is an important precondition for forecasting typhoon track to analyze general circulation situation.The significant enhancement of continental high pressure acts as a signal of circulation pattern adjustment,which is a key factor to predict YAGI s track.The tropospheric temperature ridge line ahead of the typhoon and the axis of positive vorticity at 500 hPa have good indications for typhoon track.The analysis results can provide reference for improving the accuracy of forecasting typhoon track in Shandong.

关 键 词：台风路径 环流形势 温度脊 涡度场 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]