基于倾向度和未确知测度理论深部开采岩爆预测  

Rockburst Prediction in Deep Mining Based on Propensity and Unascertained Measure Theory

作　　者：赵文斌[1] 许梦国[1] 程爱平[1] 王平[1] 陈郑亮 王哲哲 ZHAO Wenbin;XU Mengguo;CHENG Aiping;WANG Ping;CHEN Zhengliang;WANG Zhezhe(College of Resource and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,Hubei 430081,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学资源与环境工程学院

出　　处：《矿业研究与开发》2019年第12期40-45,共6页Mining Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51604195)

摘　　要：为预测程潮铁矿深部开采发生岩爆灾害的可能性及烈度,在获取矿区岩石力学相关参数的基础上,以-500^-570m阶段矿体为研究对象,建立了三维数值分析模型,根据-530m最大主应力分布情况分析了采矿过程中采场应力集中区域以及岩爆倾向变化规律,其次选取围岩切向应力系数、强度应力比、弹性能量指数、弹性应变能作为预测指标,并提出倾向度概念确定指标权重,结合未确知测度模型对各分段矿体进行岩爆等级预测。结果表明:-510m以上无岩爆倾向,-530m和-550m水平矿体岩爆倾向较高,为中等岩爆等级,为矿区安全生产和岩爆灾害防治提供理论指导。In order to predict the possibility and intensity of rockburst disaster in deep mining of Chengchao Iron Mine,based on the relevant parameters of rock mechanics in the mining area,a three-dimensional numerical analysis model was established for the ore body at-500^-570 mlevel.According to the distribution of maximum principal stress at-530 mlevel,the stress concentration area and rockburst tendency in the mining process were analyzed.Then,tangential stress coefficient,strength stress ratio,elastic energy index and elastic strain energy of the surrounding rock were selected as prediction indexes,the concept of tendency degree was proposed to determine the index weight,and the rock burst grade of each ore body level was predicted by combining the unascertained measure model.The results showed that there was no rockburst tendency above-510 mlevel,and the rockburst tendency of ore body at-530 mand-550 mlevels was relatively high,which was of medium rockburst grade.The study provided a theoretical guidance for safety production and rockburst disaster prevention in mining areas.

关 键 词：深部开采 岩爆 倾向度 未确知理论 

分 类 号：TD235[矿业工程—矿井建设]