广西土地整治碳排放影响因素及脱钩效益分析——基于LMDI模型  

Analysis Factors on Carbon Emission of Land Consolidation and Analysis of Their Decoupling Effects in Guangxi: Based on LMDI Model

作　　者：张中秋 胡宝清 韦金洪 ZHANG Zhongqiu;HU Baoqing;WEI Jinhong(College of Resources and Environment,Beibu Gulf University,Qinzhou Guangxi 535011,China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Evolution and Resources Utilization in Beibu Gulf under Ministry of Education,Nanning Normal University,Nanning Guangxi 530001,China;School of Economics and Management,Beibu Gulf University,Qinzhou Guangxi 535011,China)

机构地区：[1]北部湾大学资源与环境学院,广西钦州535011 [2]南宁师范大学北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重点实验室,广西南宁530001 [3]北部湾大学经济管理学院,广西钦州535011

出　　处：《生态经济》2020年第1期47-55,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“北部湾海陆过渡带生态环境演化机理及其情景模拟研究”(41361022);国家自然科学基金项目“广西滨海湿地生态风险评价及调控研究”(41966007);广西自然基金创新团队项目“北部湾陆海交互关键带与陆海统筹发展研究”(2016GXNSFGA380007);广西科技计划项目“喀斯特关键带与生态功能提升技术高层次人才培养示范”(桂科AD19110142)

摘　　要：运用碳排放系数法测算广西2006-2015年土地整治碳排放量,运用LMDI模型分解土地整治碳排放影响因素,并结合脱钩弹性量化模型对经济增长和土地整治碳排放的脱钩效应进行分析。结果为:(1)2006-2015年广西土地整治碳排放量呈递增趋势,10年间年均增长率为18.12%。(2)能耗强度、工料碳排放强度、人口规模和经济规模对土地整治碳排放增加起促进作用,其累计效应值分别为31.616万吨、13.469万吨、4.855万吨和2.023万吨;工料强度和耕地规模对土地整治碳排放增加起抑制作用,其累计效应值分别为-11.412万吨和-4.384万吨。(3)工料碳排放强度脱钩弹性、能源强度脱钩弹性和经济规模脱钩弹性是影响广西经济增长与土地整治碳排放脱钩的重要因素,其累计贡献率分别为77.67%、16.0%和6.19%。研究结果表明:广西土地整治碳排放与经济增长的脱钩状态波动幅度较大,尚不稳定,不利于二者的可持续发展。Using a carbon emission coefficient method, the amount of land consolidation of carbon emission in Guangxi from 2006 to 2015 was calculated. Using an LMDI model, factors affecting land consolidation of carbon emission were decomposed. Combined with a detachment elasticity quantization model, the detachment effect between economic growth and land consolidation of carbon emission was analyzed. The results showed that:(1) the amount of land consolidation of carbon emission in Guangxi showed a rising trend from 2006 to 2015 and the average annual growth rate in these 10 years was 18.12%.(2) Material carbon emission intensity, energy consumption intensity, economic scale and population size had a promoting effect on land consolidation of carbon emission, their cumulative effect values were 316 160 t, 134 690 t, 48 550 t and 20 230 t respectively. Material intensity and scale of cultivated land had an inhibiting effect on the increase of land consolidation of carbon emission, their cumulative effect values were-114 120 t and-43 840 t respectively.(3) The detachment elasticity of material carbon emission intensity, detachment elasticity of energy intensity and detachment elasticity of economic scale were important factors affecting the detachment between economic growth and land consolidation of carbon emission in Guangxi, Their cumulative contribution rates were 77.67%, 16.0% and 6.19% respectively. The detachment between land consolidation of carbon emission and economic growth in Guangxi was highly fluctuated and not stable yet, which was not conducive to the sustainable development of the two.

关 键 词：土地整治碳排放 影响因素 脱钩效应 LMDI模型 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F301.2