基于社交软件数据采用乘数法估计成都市活跃MSM人群规模  

Applying multiplier method to estimate the population size of active MSM in Chengdu based on social App data

作　　者：代珍[1] 王晓冬 刘芳[1] 段振华[1] 施雅莹[1] 张肃 何勤英[1] DAI Zhen;WANG Xiao-dong;LIU Fang;DUAN Zhen-hua;SHI Ya-ying;ZHANG Su;HE Qin-ying(Chengdu Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]成都市疾病预防控制中心,四川成都610041 [2]成都同乐社会工作服务中心,四川成都610011 [3]拉萨市疾病预防控制中心,西藏拉萨850000

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2019年第24期4421-4423,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的估计成都市男男性行为人群(MSM)规模,为预测艾滋病流行趋势和调整防治策略提供科学依据。方法应用乘数法原理结合MSM手机交友软件进行估计,以连续10 d内在成都地区范围内登录该软件人数的平均值作为记录数(r),通过网络和现场调查了解MSM人群同时期内登录过软件比例的倒数作为乘数(m),r与m相乘即为成都市MSM人群估计数。结果成都市MSM人群规模为68258人,高值为115898人,占全市15~59岁男性人口比例的1.2%~2.0%。结论以手机交友软件为目标机构的乘数法估计结果基本反映了成都市MSM人群规模。Objective The study aimed to estimate the population size of men who have sex with men(MSM)in Chengdu and to provide a basis for predicting the trend and adjusting control strategy for human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)epidemic.Methods Multiplier method and mobile phone MSM social application(App)were used for the estimation.The number of MSM(r)is the average person-times of logging in App in Chengdu region within ten days.Meanwhile,a survey was conducted among MSM to obtain the proportion of MSM who had logging in the APP during the given period,the reciprocal of the proportion was the multiplier(m),therefore,population size can be estimated by r multiplied by m.Results The population size of MSM in Chengdu city was 68258,and the high value was 115898,accounting for 1.2%to 2.0%of local male population aged from 15 to 59 years.Conclusion It is feasible to use multiplier method which selects mobile phone social App as target institution to estimate population size of MSM.

关 键 词：男男性行为者 乘数法 规模估计 社交软件 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]