计及光伏出力与负荷相关性的电力系统概率潮流计算方法  

Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation Method for Power System Considering the Correlation Between Photovoltaic Output and Load

作　　者：陆为华 李国庆[1] 董存[2] 权然 LU Weihua;LI Guoqing;DONG Cun;QUAN Ran(Key Laboratory of Modern Power System Simulation and Control Renewable Energy Technology,M inistry of Education(Northeast Electric Power University),Jilin 132012,Jilin Province,China;State Grid Corporation of China,Xicheng District,Beijing 100031,China)

机构地区：[1]现代电力系统仿真控制与绿色电能新技术教育部重点实验室(东北电力大学),吉林吉林132012 [2]国家电网公司,北京西城100031

出　　处：《分布式能源》2019年第5期1-9,共9页Distributed Energy

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB0904700);国家电网有限公司总部科技项目(考虑云、浮尘等复杂因素的光伏出力特性多时空尺度变化规律研究与应用)~~

摘　　要：光伏出力与负荷的不确定性以及二者的相关性对准确评估电力系统运行状态具有重要的影响,为此提出了一种考虑光伏出力与负荷不确定性以及相关性的电力系统概率潮流计算方法。首先,基于光伏出力和负荷的概率分布特性,提出了一种非参数估计概率分布模型,以准确描述光伏电站的实际输出功率。其次,采用Kendall秩相关系数和最小平方欧式距离作为相关性测度和拟合优度指标,利用Copula理论构建了计及光伏出力与负荷相关性的联合概率分布模型,进而利用蒙特卡洛法抽取具有相关性的光伏出力与负荷样本,进一步提出了考虑相关性的概率潮流计算方法。最后,基于IEEE 34节点系统和我国某光伏电站的实测数据进行仿真验证,分析了光伏出力与负荷相关性对系统运行特性的影响,验证了所提出的方法能够准确对计及任意分布的光伏出力与负荷相关性的电力系统进行概率潮流计算。Since the randomness and correlation of PV output and load have an important impact on the accurate evaluation of power system operating characteristics,this paper studies the probabilistic power flow of power system considering the randomness and correlation between PV output and load.Firstly,based on the distribution characteristics of PV output and load,a mathematical model of nonparametric probability distribution is proposed.Secondly,Kendall correlation coefficient and least square Euclidean distance are used as correlation measure and fitting index,which is constructed by Copula theory.Taking into account the joint probability distribution model of PV output and load correlation,a probabilistic power flow calculation method that can accurately consider the correlation between the two is proposed,and the influence of PV output and load correlation on the operating characteristics of the system is analyzed.Finally,a simulation is carried out with the measured data of a PV power plant of China and the IEEE 34 node power distribution system.The simulation results show that the proposed probability distribution model can more accurately reflect the randomness and volatility of PV output and load,and verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the probabilistic power flow method which takes the correlation of PV output and load into consideration.

关 键 词：光伏出力 非参数 COPULA理论 联合概率分布 概率潮流 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]