兖州某矿区地表沉降规律的预计  

Prediction of Ground Surface Subsidence in a Mining Area of Yanzhou Coal Mine

作　　者：王冬[1] 姜俊奎 张焱 WANG Dong;JIANG Jun-kui;ZHANG Yan(College of Geomatics,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学测绘科学与工程学院

出　　处：《煤炭技术》2019年第11期70-73,共4页Coal Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271451;41371425);山东省优秀中青年科学家科研奖励基金项目(BS2012DX033)

摘　　要：为了解决地表沉降中单一的采用概率积分法导致局部预测值与实测值误差较大的问题,采用了概率积分法与ARMA模型相结合的方法,对采空区地表沉降进行分区域处理。采空区地表沉降预计结果为概率积分法预测的趋势项模型与ARMA预测的非趋势项模型之和,采用新模型对兖州某矿区的地表沉降进行预测,克服了局部拟合度较低的问题。实验结果表明,非趋势项ARMA模型弥补了概率积分法的不足,预测精度高且拟合程度好,具有较高的可行性。In order to solve the problem that the error of the local prediction value and the measured value is large by using the probability integral method in the ground surface settlement,use a combination of probability integral method and ARMA model to process the ground surface settlement of the gob area.The predicted results of ground surface settlement in the gob area are the sum of the trend term model forecasted by the probability integral method and the non-trend term model predicted by ARMA.The new model is used to predict the ground surface settlement in the Yanzhou coal mine,which overcomed the problem of low R-squared in the local.The experimental results showed that the non-trend-term ARMA model compensates for the disadvantages of the probability integral method,has high prediction accuracy and good fitting degree,and has higher feasibility.

关 键 词：地表沉降 概率积分法 ARMA模型 拟合度 

分 类 号：TD325[矿业工程—矿井建设]