环境变化对汉江上游径流影响的定量分析  

Quantitative analysis of impacts of environment changes on runoff in upper Han River

作　　者：杨倩 刘登峰[1] 孟宪萌[2] 黄强[1] 林木[3] YANG Qian;LIU Dengfeng;MENG Xianmeng;HUANG Qiang;LIN Mu(State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048;School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074;School of Statistics and Mathematics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,西安710048 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院,武汉430074 [3]中央财经大学统计与数学学院,北京100081

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2019年第12期73-84,共12页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0405900);国家自然科学基金(51779203; 51609270)

摘　　要：气候和土地利用等环境变化的水文响应研究对流域水资源利用具有重要价值。以汉江石泉水文站上游为研究区,采用7种基于Budyko理论的弹性系数法和SWAT模型定量分析了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率,设置多种气候变化和土地利用变化情景,分析其对径流的影响。结果表明,石泉水文站年径流呈减少趋势,气候变化对径流减少的贡献率为65.3%~68.1%,人类活动的贡献率为31.9%~34.7%,气候变化是近56年径流减少的主要原因。气候变化情景的模拟显示径流变化主要由降水变化主导。土地利用自然增长情景和极端草地情景使石泉水文站年径流量增加,而退耕还林、极端耕地和极端林地情景使年径流量减少。To study the hydrological responses of a river basin to environment changes such as climate and land use changes is of great value to water resources utilization.This paper presents a quantitative analysis on the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff change,using seven elasticity methods based on the Budyko framework and a SWAT model.In a case study of the upper Han River upstream of the Shiquan hydrological station,various scenarios of climate change and land use change are examined.The results show that annual runoff at this station underwent a decreasing trend.Climate change accounted for 65.3%-68.1% of the runoff decrease and human activities for 31.9%-34.7%,indicating that climate change was the major factor causing the runoff decrease in recent 56 years.Simulations of the climate change scenarios show that precipitation is the dominant factor in the runoff change,and that the annual runoff increases in the scenarios of natural land use growth and extreme grassland but decreases in the scenarios of farmland return to forest,extreme cultivated land,and extreme woodland.

关 键 词：气候变化 人类活动 SWAT模型 弹性系数法 汉江上游 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学] P338[水利工程—水文学及水资源]