2016年夏季不同分辨率GRAPES＿MESO模式的西北地区预报效果检验  

Test of prediction effect on Northwest China with different resolutions of GRAPES＿MESO model

作　　者：彭筱[1] 陈晓燕[1] 黄武斌[1] Peng Xiao;Chen Xiaoyan;Huang Wubin(Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory,Lanzhou Gansu 730020)

机构地区：[1]兰州中心气象台

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2019年第4期6-11,共6页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：甘肃省气象局重点项目GSMAZd2017-06;国家科技支撑计划“中期天气预报关键技术研究”第6专题“10-20天延伸期天气预报技术研究”(编号2015BAC03B06);兰州中心气象台业务科技创新基金项目LCMO-201818

摘　　要：利用2016年夏季西北四省08时24h雨量观测资料和2m温度资料,采用累积降水检验、平均误差、均方根误差分析方法,对用GFS资料驱动的不同分辨率(0.1°×0.1°和0.03°×0.03°)GRAPES_MESO模式的预报进行评估检验和比较,并选择一次降水过程作对比分析。结果表明,在6月、7月、8月三个月中,总体上,10km分辨率模式对西北地区暴雨预报能力优于3km分辨率模式,而小、中、大雨量级的预报上,3km模式分辨率的预报效果更好。两个模式在降水的空报率上都偏高。在温度预报上,10km分辨率的模式对西北地区2m温度预报准确率高于3km分辨率模式,而3km分辨率模式的预报稳定性更好。Based on the 24-hour rainfall observation data at 8 pm and temperature data at 2m in four provinces of Northwest China in summer 2016,the prediction of GRAPES_MESO model with different resolutions(0.1°×0.1°and 0.03°x 0.03°)driven by GFS data was evaluated and compared;besides,a precipitation process was selected for comparative analysis.The results showed that in June,July and August,the 10km resolution model is better than the 3m,resolution model in terms of its ability to forecast rainstorm in northwest China,and the 3km resolution model is better for light,moderate and heavy rain.Both models have high-empty rate of precipitation.to temperature forecast at 2m in northwest China,the prediction accuracy and the prediction ability of 10 km resolution model was better than that of 3km resolution model,while the prediction stability of 3km resolution model was better.

关 键 词：GRAPES_LZ模式 GRAPES_LZhr模式 预报 检验 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]