台风“山竹”登陆前后广东沿海珠三角机场阵风预报方法研究  

Gust forecast methods in the Pearl River Delta airports along the cast of Guangdong Proince before and after typhoon Mangkhut landing

作　　者：谢文锋 王刚 张有洋 Xie Wenfeng;Wang Gang;Zhang Youyang(Meteorological Center of Middle South Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau of CAAC,Guangzhou Guangdong 510405)

机构地区：[1]民航中南空管局气象中心

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2019年第4期28-32,共5页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

摘　　要：利用WRF模式对1822号台风"山竹"的登陆过程进行数值模拟试验,分析台风产生的大风特征,比较不同的阵风参数化方法在机场大风预报中的效果,结果表明:(1)试验基本模拟出了台风的路径和强度变化过程,模拟的珠三角机场平均风速大小和变化趋势与观测非常接近。(2)地面最大风速区出现在距离台风中心大约50-100km的位置上,垂直方向上风速从低层到高层逐渐减小,湍流动能的大值区集中在1.5km以下的边界层内。(3)台风登陆过程中广州、深圳和珠海机场的平均阵风因子分别为1.45、1.51和1.46,且随着平均风速的增大,阵风因子有减小的趋势。(4)基于湍流动能的阵风参数化方案在珠三角机场阵风预报中效果最好,平均预报误差只有3.9m/s,可以考虑应用到台风天气过程中机场阵风的业务预报。The landing process of typhoon Mangkhut in 2018 was simulated by using WRF model.The characteristics of typhoon gale were analyzed and the effects of different gust parameterization methods in airport gale forecasting were compared.The results showed that(1) the test basically simulated the path and intensity change process of typhoon,and the simulated average wind speed and change trend of Pearl River Delta airports were very close to the observation.(2) The maximum wind speed on the ground occurred at the position of about 50-100 km away from the typhoon center.In the vertical direction,the wind speed gradually decreased from the low level to the high level,and the large value area of turbulent kinetic energy was concentrated in the boundary layer below 1.5 km.(3) During the landing process of typhoon,the average gust factors of Guangzhou,Shenzhen and Zhuhai airports were 1.45,1.51 and 1.46,respectively.With the increase of the average wind speed,the gust factors tended to decrease.(4) The gust parameterization scheme based on turbulence kinetic energy had the best effect in the gust forecast of the airports in the Pearl River Delta.The average forecast error was only 3.9 m/s.It can be considered to apply to the operational forecast of airport gusts during typhoon weather.

关 键 词：台风 阵风 湍流动能 边界层 数值模拟 广东沿海 

分 类 号：P458.P24[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]