金融加速器效应与“杠杆率悖论”——基于制造业部门的实证研究  

Financial Accelerator Effect and “Leverage Ratio Paradox”: An Empirical Analysis of the Manufacturing Sector

作　　者：王韧 李志伟 Wang Ren;Li Zhiwei(Research Center for Economy of Upper Research of the Yangtse River,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;School of Finance,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心,重庆400067 [2]重庆工商大学财政金融学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《上海财经大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2019年第6期35-49,共15页Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家统计局全国统计科学研究重点项目“供给侧结构性改革背景下金融体系效率的统计测度研究”(2019LZ03);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“产能过剩背景下的杠杆率悖论与货币政策选择”(17XJC790015);重庆工商大学研究生创新基金项目“供给侧改革背景下我国金融效率特征及其产业传导机制研究”(yjscxx2019-101-50)

摘　　要：制造业部门的杠杆率调控受制于金融加速器效应和金融资源配置结构。文章从金融加速器的理论框架出发,围绕金融资源配置结构与企业杠杆响应机制两个基本问题,以煤炭、钢铁、水泥、玻璃、电解铝五个典型制造业部门的微观调查数据为样本,对实际债务负担和资产负债率两个微观企业杠杆率指标的宏微观响应机制进行了综合探讨。研究发现:(1)微观制造企业的杠杆率演变对于宏观货币环境变化的敏感度远高于微观因素;(2)宏观景气和货币调控对微观企业杠杆都呈现显著负向冲击,说明其产值(收入)弹性显著高于利息弹性,资产端弹性远高于负债端弹性,金融加速器效应现实存在,这是"杠杆率悖论"的基础;(3)制造业部门内部存在明显的金融资源错配问题,并在经济上行期或货币宽松阶段驱动低效率企业的投资潮涌,而在经济下行期或货币紧缩阶段放大金融加速器效应。因此,对制造业部门而言,经济转型期的结构性去杠杆应当在相对稳定的货币环境下进行,同时应强化宏观调控与行业管理,并立足于打造"优胜劣汰"的产业政策体系,重点推进金融资源配置的结构优化。Promoting structural de-leveraging is the key to achieving high-quality manufacturing development. However,in China’s monetary policy practice in recent years,the"leverage ratio paradox" phenomenon in the manufacturing sector has attracted much attention,which is due to not only the structural mismatch of financial resources,but also the financial accelerator effect at the aggregate level. However,because the existing research is limited to different theoretical main lines,not only the definition of "leverage ratio" is inconsistent,but also the discussion focuses on the macro-level and lacks sufficient consideration of the particularity of the manufacturing sector,which also leads to the industry level of applicability restrictions. This study attempts to select large sample micro-survey data of five typical manufacturing sectors,namely,coal,steel,cement,glass and electrolytic aluminum,as the research sample under the theoretical framework of financial accelerator. From the two dimensions of the actual debt burden and the asset-liability ratio of enterprises,the characteristics of the reverse regulation in the evolution of leverage ratio and the root cause of the "leverage ratio paradox" phenomenon are discussed. The study finds that:(1)The leverage ratio of Chinese manufacturing enterprises is much more sensitive to changes in the macro-monetary environment than micro-factors,and it exhibits significant strong cycle characteristics.(2)The leverage ratio of Chinese manufacturing enterprises has the characteristic of inverse regulation. In the macro cycle and currency regulation process,the asset end elasticity is significantly higher than the debt end,and the income end elasticity is significantly higher than the interest end,which not only conforms to the classic description of the financial accelerator effect,but also is the theoretical root cause of the "leverage ratio paradox" phenomenon.(3)China’s manufacturing sector also has serious financial resource mismatch problems. Government intervention has inte

关 键 词：制造企业 杠杆率悖论 金融加速器 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]