孕产妇及婴儿死亡率、人均国内生产总值对人均期望寿命的影响  

Study on the influence of maternal and infant mortality and per capita GDP to per capita life expectancy

作　　者：张笑男[1] 沈建华 张山山[3] 刘锦桃[1] ZHANG Xiao-nan;SHEN Jian-hua;ZHANG Shan-shan;LIU Jin-tao(Yunnan Maternal and Child Health Hospital,Kunming Yunnan 650051,China;Yunnan Provincial Health Development Research Center,Kunming Yunnan 650100,China;School of Earth Sciences and Information Physics,Central South University,Changsha Hunan 410012,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省妇幼保健院,云南昆明650000 [2]云南省健康发展研究中心,云南昆明650100 [3]中南大学地球科学与信息物理学院,湖南长沙410012

出　　处：《卫生软科学》2019年第12期73-75,共3页Soft Science of Health

摘　　要：[目的]研究孕产妇死亡率(MMR)、婴儿死亡率(IMR)和人均国内生产总值(GDP)对人均期望寿命变化的影响,为提高人均期望寿命提供依据。[方法]建立中国和云南各项变量数据库,将不同年代的人均期望寿命、MMR、IMR和人均GDP分别作系统聚类分析,以人均期望寿命为因变量,MMR、IMR和人均GDP为自变量(协变量),作线性逐步回归分析。[结果]我国人均期望寿命在1990-2010年的20年间提高了7.29岁,MMR从94.7/10万下降到了30/10万,IMR从22.43‰下降到了4.35‰;云南省人均期望寿命在1990-2010年20年间提高了13.96岁,MMR从80.96/10万下降到了37.72/10万,IMR从95.4‰下降到了15.24‰;我国2000年的IMR、MMR、人均GDP的标准回归系数(Beta)分别为-0.311、-0.372、0.314,表明IMR、MMR、人均GDP对人均期望寿命均有影响,2010年IMR、MMR、人均GDP的标准回归系数(Beta)分别为-0.204、-0.207、0.438,MMR、IMR被剔除出方程,进入方程的只有人均GDP;云南2000年IMR、MMR、人均GDP对人均期望寿命的贡献率分别为74.7%、17.0%、24.0%,2010年IMR、MMR、人均GDP的回归系数分别为0.520、0.112、0.278,IMR、MMR被剔除出方程,进入方程的只有人均GDP。[结论]不同时期影响人均期望寿命的因素不一样,在科技和经济落后的年代,影响人均期望寿命的因素主要是IMR和MMR;当社会进步到一定程度后IMR和MMR下降到一定水平时对人均期望寿命影响降低甚至无影响,其主要影响的是人均GDP。Objective To study the influence of maternal mortality(MMR),infant mortality(IMR)and per capita gross domestic product(GDP)to the change of per capita life expectancy so as to provide basis for improving per capita life expectancy.Methods Established database of variables in China and Yunnan,and conducted hierarchical cluster analysis on per capita life expectancy,MMR,IMR and per capita GDP in various years,took per capita life expectancy as the dependent variable,MMR,IMR and per capita GDP as independence variable(concomitant variable)for linear stepwise regression analysis.Results China's per capita life expectancy increased by 7.29 years in the 20 years from 1990 to 2010,MMR dropped from 94.7/100,000 to 30/100,000,and IMR dropped from 22.43‰ to 4.35‰.Per capita life expectancy increased by 13.96 years in the 20 years from 1990 to 2010 in Yunnan,MMR dropped from 80.96/100,000 to 37.72/100,000,IMR dropped from 95.4‰ to 15.24‰.IMR,MMR,standard regression coefficient of per capita GDP(Beta)was-0.311,-0.372 and 0.314 respectively in 2010 in China.It indicated that IMR,MMR,and per capita GDP had influence in per capita life expectancy.The standard regression coefficient(Beta)of IMR,MMR,and GDP in 2010 was-0.204,-0.207 and 0.438 respectively in 2010.MMR,IMR were excluded from the equation,and only GDP per capita entered the equation.The contribution rates of IMR,MMR,and GDP to life expectancy in Yunnan in 2000 was 74.7%,17.0% and 24.0% respectively.The regression coefficient of IMR,MMR,GDP was 0.520,0.112 and 0.278 respectively.IMR and MMR were excluded from the equation,and only GDP per capita was entered into the equation.Conclusions The factors influencing life expectancy at different times are different in different periods.In the era of backward technology and economy,the factors influencing life expectancy per capita are mainly IMR and MMR.When the society progresses to a certain extent,there is no influence in life expectancy if IMR and MMR drop to a certain level,its main impact is per capita GDP.

关 键 词：孕产妇死亡率 婴儿死亡率 人均国内生产总值 人均期望寿命 

分 类 号：R17[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]