基于VAR模型的城市土地承载力动态因子影响效应及耦合协调性研究  

Study on influence effect and coupling coordination of dynamic factors of urban land carrying capacity based on VAR model

作　　者：赵伟 姜长军[2] 李贻学[2] ZHAO Wei;JIANG Changjun;LI Yixue(School of Economics and Management,Hangzhou Normal University,Hangzhou 311121,China;College of Resources and Environment,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai’an 271000,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学经济与管理学院,浙江杭州311121 [2]山东农业大学资源与环境学院,山东泰安271000

出　　处：《河南农业大学学报》2019年第6期926-933,共8页Journal of Henan Agricultural University

基　　金：杭州市社会科学届联合会课题(2019HZSL-ZC001)

摘　　要：通过构建杭州市土地承载力指标体系,引入耦合协调性模型和向量自回归(vector autoregressive,VAR)模型,运用脉冲响应函数以及方差分解技术,对土地人口承载力、生态环境承载力及社会经济承载力之间的动态影响效应和耦合协调性进行了研究。结果表明,各承载力子系统之间耦合协调性处于中级失调级别,耦合度评价级别呈“拮抗—低水平耦合—拮抗”变化态势。各承载力系统受自身变动冲击的影响最大,方差贡献率分别为85.2%、52.7%和78.9%。生态环境系统对社会经济系统产生较强的正向响应,方差贡献率为43%。土地人口承载力对其他系统的动态影响作用较小,对社会经济系统及生态环境的冲击贡献率分别为3.4%和5.8%。By constructing the index system of land carrying capacity in Hangzhou,the coupling coordination model and the vector autoregressive(VAR)model of each carrying capacity subsystem are introduced,and by using the impulse response function and variance decomposition technique the dynamic effects and coupling coordination between land population carrying capacity and ecological environment carrying capacity and social economy carrying capacity were studied.The results show that the coupling coordination between the various carrying capacity subsystems is at the intermediate level,and the evaluation level of the coupling is roughly the change trend of“antagonism to low level coupling to antagonism”.Based on the VAR model,the dynamic impact effect of Hangzhou’s carrying capacity factors shows that each carrying capacity system is most affected by its own impact shock,and the variance contribution rates are 85.2%,52.7%,and 78.9%,respectively.The eco-environment system has responded positively to the socio-economic system,and the variance contribution rate is 43%,indicating that the eco-environment system has a strong positive impact on the socio-economic system.The contribution rate of land population carrying capacity to the socio-economic system and the ecological environment is 3.4%and 5.8%,respectively,indicating that the land population carrying capacity and other systems have less dynamic impact.

关 键 词：土地承载力 动态影响效应 耦合协调性 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]