中国蔬菜出口的三元边际特征及影响因素分析  

Analysis of ternary marginal characteristics and influencing factors of vegetable export in China

作　　者：许荣[1] 肖海峰[1] XU Rong;XIAO Haifeng(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《河南农业大学学报》2019年第6期995-1002,共8页Journal of Henan Agricultural University

基　　金：农业农村部和财政部项目(CARS-39-22)

摘　　要：基于2000—2017年中国与415个出口贸易对象国蔬菜产品的贸易数据,利用三元边际分析方法,对中国蔬菜产品的出口增长因素及其作用进行研究,并利用扩展的引力模型对蔬菜出口的三元边际特征的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明,中国蔬菜产品出口份额的变化主要由于数量的变化而引起,但价格指数对贸易增长的促进作用也逐步显现;中国蔬菜产品出口种类较多且基本保持稳定,对出口增长的贡献主要表现在短时期的出口波动及部分贸易市场上。从影响因素来看,相对经济规模、贸易成本、出口经验和经济制度等相关变量均对中国蔬菜出口的三元边际具有不同程度的影响。Based on the trade data of vegetable products between China and 415 export-oriented countries from 2000 to 2017,the paper studied the export growth factors and their effects of vegetable products in China by using the ternary marginal analysis method,and made an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the ternary marginal decomposition of vegetable exports by using the extended gravity model.The results showed that the change of export share of vegetable products in China was mainly caused by the change of quantity,but the role of price index in promoting trade growth was gradually emerging.China’s export of vegetable products is diversified and basically stable.The contribution to export growth was mainly reflected in short-term export fluctuation and part of the trade market.From the perspective of influencing factors,related variables like the relative economic scale,trade costs,export experience and economic system all had different effects on the trilateral marginal of vegetable export in China.

关 键 词：蔬菜 出口 三元边际分解 引力模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]