政治性民意集团及其利益博弈：缅甸国内长期冲突的一个分析视角  

Political Public Opinion Cliques and Its Interest Game: An Analytical Perspective of Long-term Internal Conflict in Myanma

作　　者：熊理然 刘静[2] 刘保强[2,3] 蒋梅英[2] Xiong Liran;Liu Jing;Liu Baoqiang;Jiang Meiying(Research Center for Southwest China's Opening-up and Borderland Security,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,Chin;School of Tourism and Geography Science,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,Chin;Center for Bay of Bengal Area Studies,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China;Yunnan Provincial Universities Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Application of China's Neighboring Countries,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学中国西南对外开放与边疆安全研究中心,昆明650500 [2]云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,昆明650500 [3]云南师范大学孟加拉湾地区研究中心,昆明650500 [4]云南省高校周边国家大数据挖掘与应用重点实验室,昆明650500

出　　处：《热带地理》2019年第6期812-822,共11页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41561033,41861028);国家社科基金重大项目(16ZDA041)

摘　　要：文章首先提出了一个国内政治性行为主体影响国家政局的分析框架,然后从"民意""民意政治""政治性民意"的视角,依据各民意集团的构成主体、利益诉求、行为方式等要素对缅甸国内的政治性民意集团进行梳理和划分,分析了缅甸政治性民意集团形成的时空环境,并对其形成的过程与机制进行探讨。研究发现,在缅甸特殊的历史和地理环境背景下,形成了基于利益诉求而相互博弈的六大主要的政治性民意集团。各政治性民意集团或采取平等协商签订协议,或软硬兼施诱使妥协,或使用强力打击迫使接受等手段、方式进行权利博弈,成为缅甸国内主要的政治性行为主体。各政治性民意集团的借力博弈对缅甸政局产生了深远的影响,民意集团之间冲突的实质是其集团利益超越国家利益,这是缅甸国内长期冲突的主要致因。从"民意""民意政治"的视域来研究一国内部的民主问题、民族问题、宗教问题和冲突问题是富有尝试性和探索性的,缅甸的实证研究也为研究特定国家的相关问题提供一个新的视野和参考借鉴。As an important neighboring country of China and an important node country along the Belt and Road Initiative, the internal political change in Myanmar will endanger the border security of China. As a result,furthering practical development of the community of shared interests as well as the community of a shared future between China and the surrounding countries will be influenced. First, in this study, we an analytical framework in which domestic political actors influence the state’s political situation. Then, from perspectives of "public opinion, "politics of public opinion," and "political public opinion" this paper classifies the historical events of competition and cooperation among the political actors in Myanmar by analyzing historical documents. We divide the domestic political forces of Myanmar into six major political public opinion cliques according to features such as the composition subject and interests demand and behavior style. Then, we analyze the space-time environment of the political public opinion cliques forming process and discuss the process and mechanism of the formation of political public opinion cliques. By analyzing the behavior of political public opinion cliques, we consider that six major political public opinion cliques have been formed that are driven by individual interests and play chess with each other in the context of constitutional crisis and ethnic construction under the concepts of "one religion, one language, and one race." Additionally, we consider that the geographical division of ethnic minorities and the Bamar are divided in the geographical environment of the spatial distribution caused by the topography of Myanmar territory. These public opinion cliques mainly include a military-political public opinion clique, a public opinion clique pursuing western-style democracy, an ethnic clique pursuing autonomy or independence, a public opinion clique with exclusivism by outside forces, an extremely xenophobic Buddhist public opinion clique, and a religious exclusionary

关 键 词：政治性民意集团 国内冲突 行为主体 利益博弈 冲突致因 缅甸 

分 类 号：D73/77[政治法律—政治学]