缅北局势及其对中缅经济走廊建设的影响  

Impact of the Northern Myanmar Situation on the China–Myanmar Economic Corridor Construction

作　　者：李灿松[1,2] 胡平平 杨旺舟[1,2,3] Li Chansong;Hu Pingping;Yang Wangzhou(College of Tourism and Geography Science,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China;Center for Myanmar Study,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,昆明650500 [2]云南师范大学缅甸研究中心,昆明650500 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《热带地理》2019年第6期823-832,共10页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家社科重大项目(16ZDA041);云南省哲学社会科学重点项目(ZDZZD201807);教育部云南师范大学缅甸研究中心(备案)年度项目

摘　　要：通过系统梳理缅北局势发展历程,剖析冲突各主体的诉求,分析缅北局势对中缅经济走廊建设的具体影响,并从第三方介入构建缅军与少数民族地方武装之间双方认可的《全国全面停火协定》的视角提出应对的机制和措施。结果显示:目前,缅北局势呈现出冲突规模随时间推移持续上升的趋势,冲突从果敢爆发后向南北方向扩散并高度集中于中间区域;受地缘环境复杂和大国利益交汇影响,缅北冲突在短时间内无法消除;缅军与少数民族地方武装之间的冲突在短期内无法消除,冲突各方缺乏平等对话的平台与和谈共识,持续性冲突将是缅北的常态。缅北局势影响了中缅经济走廊建设,致使中缅经济走廊的投资项目无法有效推进,阻滞"人字形"走廊的通畅,并有损中国政府及企业在缅形象。针对缅北局势的影响,中国及其他国际组织等应认真调研和精确把握双方诉求和缅甸的局势,积极协助缅甸冲突双方、为主要政党搭建对话平台、构建平等的协商机制、促进和谈有效推进。经济走廊建设既要注重硬环境的建设,更要加强软环境的投资等,这些将是保证中缅经济走廊建设有效推进的关键。因此,以缅甸为突破口,在中国周边构建"一带一路"建设的样板,探讨落实倡议的有效路径,总结各类经验。If Myanmar is the bridge of "the Belt and Road Initiative" connecting south and southeast Asia in the geographical pattern of Asia, then northern Myanmar is the key to entering the bridge. The present situation in northern Myanmar shows the following characteristics: 1) the scale of the conflict continues to rise over time,with the conflict spreading from Kokang to the north-south direction of Myanmar and being highly concentrated in the central region;2) the geographical environment of northern Myanmar is complex, and it is a region where interests of great powers converge;3) the conflict between the Burmese army and the ethnic armed groups cannot be eliminated in the short term, and this persistent conflict will be the norm in northern Myanmar;and 4) the parties to the conflict lack a platform for equal dialog and consensus in peace talks, and are unable to reach a consensus in the short term. This situation in northern Myanmar has affected the construction of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, resulting in the inability to effectively push forward its investment projects,blocking the development of the "herringbone" corridor, and damaging the image of the Chinese government and enterprises in Myanmar. In view of the impact of the situation in northern Myanmar, China and other international organizations should seriously research on and accurately grasp the demands of both sides and the situation in Myanmar and actively assist both sides in conflict. Major political parties must set up a dialog platform, establish an equal consultation mechanism, and promote the effective advancement of peace talks. The creation of the economic corridor should focus not only on the construction of a hard environment, but also on the strengthening of investment in a soft environment, which will be the key to ensuring the effective advancement of the China-Myanmar economic corridor construction. Therefore, taking the case of Myanmar as a breakthrough is greatly significant in building a model of "the Belt and Road" construction

关 键 词：缅北局势 地缘政治 武装冲突 中缅经济走廊 

分 类 号：K901.4[历史地理—人文地理学]