基于可拓云模型的区域生态安全预警模型及应用——以垫江县为例  

Early-warning Model for the Regional Ecological Security and Its Application Based on the Extension Cloud Theory ——A Case Study of Dianjiang County

作　　者：陈林 牟凤云 李梦梅 CHEN Lin;MU Feng-yun;LI Meng-mei(College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学建筑与城市规划学院

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2019年第35期402-408,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：科技部国家重点研发计划(2019YFB2102503);国家自然科学基金(41601564)资助

摘　　要：为了了解垫江县生态安全状况,建立了生态安全评价与预警模型。基于压力、状态、响应框架模型构建生态安全预警指标体系,采用主客观综合赋权法确定指标权重,并基于可拓云模型建立了区域生态安全预警模型。评价垫江县2005~2015年的生态安全,并对其2020年的生态安全进行预警。结果表明:①2005~2015年垫江县总体生态安全水平较高,2008~2010年、2012~2015年皆处于蓝色预警状态,但发展趋势呈下滑状态;②在影响垫江县生态安全的指标中,人均GDP、建成区绿化覆盖率保投入强度、万人拥有医院床位数的变化最为剧烈;③预测2020年垫江县的生态安全处于为黄色预警状态,人口和环保投入强度将成为影响垫江县生态安全的主要因素。可见生态安全评价与预警能为垫江县的生态工程建设提供决策参考,对垫江县生态安全的维护具有重要意义。In order to understand the ecological security situation of Dianjiang County,an ecological security evaluation and early warning model was established.The ecological security early-warning index system was constructed based on the stress,state and response framework model.And the subjective and objective comprehensive weighting method was used to determine the index weight.Then the regional ecological security early-warning model was established based on the extension cloud model for evaluating the ecological security of Dianjiang County from 2005 to 2015 and predicting the warning of ecological security in 2020.The results show these as follows.①The overall ecological security level of Dianjiang County is relatively high in 2005~2015,and it is in the blue warning state in 2008~2010 and 2012~2015,but the development trend is declining.②Among the ecological security indicators in Dianjiang County,the per capita GDP,the green coverage rate of the built-up area,the intensity of environmental protection investment,and the number of hospital beds per 10000 people have the most dramatic changes.③The prediction of ecological security level is yellow warning state in Dianjiang County in 2020;the population and the intensity of environmental protection investment would become the main factors affecting the ecological security of Dianjiang County.It is concluded that ecological security assessment and early warning can provide decision-making reference for the ecological engineering construction in Dianjiang County,which is of great significance to the maintenance of ecological security in Dianjiang County.

关 键 词：生态安全 压力-状态-响应指标体系 可拓云 垫江县 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]