欧亚经济联盟的理论与实践——兼议中国的战略选择  

The Eurasian Economic Alliance in Theory and Practice:A Discussion of China’s Strategic Choices

作　　者：王晨星[1,2] 姜磊 Wang Chenxing;Jiang Lei(Institute of Russian.East European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,and a Post-Doctorate in the School of Economics of the Nankai University;Institute for National Security Studies at the National Defense University)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所 [2]南开大学经济学院 [3]国防大学国家安全学院

出　　处：《当代亚太》2019年第6期67-98,159,160,共34页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“丝绸之路经济带框架下的中俄全面合作研究”（项目编号：16ZDA040）的阶段性成果

摘　　要：欧亚经济联盟作为新型区域经济一体化机制已经客观存在,并对中国及欧亚周边地区产生了实质性的影响.运行五年来,欧亚经济联盟并未实现大的发展,但也未半途夭折.文章通过分析欧亚经济联盟理论基础和运行实践得出:欧亚经济联盟是欧亚地区自身特点与欧洲一体化先进经验的结合体,组建其的重要经济动因是在长期低油价情况下,能够共同拓展经济发展空间,解决本国宏观经济增长乏力的困境.以欧亚经济联盟为机制载体的欧亚一体化更是俄罗斯强国战略下的“引领式一体化”,是俄罗斯面对东西方地缘政治经济压力,为拉紧周边中小国家而推行的“维系式一体化”,也是俄罗斯周边中小国家的“追随式一体化”.欧亚经济联盟在中短期内将继续保持低速前进,从商品共同市场逐步向能源共同市场迈进;从长期看,其一体化发展水平将低于欧盟,但高于东盟和南方共同市场,国际影响力将大于独联体.因此,在百年未有大变局中,面对新生的欧亚经济联盟,中国在欧亚战略选择中应充分认识到:首先,在与发达经济体实现“良性脱钩”的过程中,欧亚经济联盟是可以争取的支持力量,而在处理与其他新兴经济体,尤其与欧亚新兴经济体的关系时,欧亚经济联盟及其主导国俄罗斯是需要战略协作的对象;其次,与对美关系不同,俄罗斯则是中国最重要的战略伙伴,中俄关系是中国大国外交的“压舱石”.中俄关系始终是推动“一带一盟”对接合作,营造良好周边环境的关键点.The Eurasian Economic Union has already emerged as a new platform for regional economic integration,and it has substantial impact on the environment that China faces vis-à-vis Eurasia.This article comes to the following conclusions on the basis of an analysis of the theoretical foundations and the experience of the EEU to present:the EEU represents the combination of Europe’s advanced experiences with integration with the unique characteristics of the Eurasian region;the key drivers for establishing the EEU are the needs for space for economic development and to overcome dilemmas associated with weak macroeconomic growth levels under long term conditions of low oil prices;as an institutional mechanism for Eurasian integration,the EEU supports Russia’s "Big Power" strategy,particularly in the face of geo-political pressure from both the West and the East,as it pulls small and medium sized neighboring states closer to Russia in a form of "sustainable integration" with small and medium sized states following Russia’s lead.

关 键 词：欧亚经济联盟 “一带一盟” 对接合作 欧亚一体化 中国 欧亚战略 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]