权数在人口抽样调查估计中的应用研究  

Application Research of Weights in Population Sample Survey Estimation

作　　者：王小宁[1] WANG Xiao-ning(School of Data Science and Media Intelligence,Communication University of China,Beijing 100024,China)

机构地区：[1]中国传媒大学数据科学与智能媒体学院

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2019年第12期9-15,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：中国传媒大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助;北京市高校高精尖学科建设项目(中国传媒大学互联网信息学科)经费资助

摘　　要：很多全国性大型人口抽样调查项目中的核心技术包括抽样方案设计、样本单元的权数计算等。用样本数据推断总体,权数的作用很关键,尤其是抽样调查越来越难保证做到等概率抽样的情况。为此,采用第四次中国城乡老年人生活状况抽样调查中的具体调查方案和实际调查数据,系统地对抽样过程中的权数进行测算,同时根据权效应对权数进行调整和控制,利用刀切法对相关统计量的标准误差和变异系数进行对比分析,来验证权数控制在提高精度方面的有效性。结合老年人生活状况的调查数据进行实证分析,结果表明,利用刀切法计算权数截取的标准误差比未调整权数的标准误差更有效,得到变量的变异系数更小。The core technologies in many large-scale national sample survey projects include sampling plan design,weight calculation of sample units,etc.,using sample data to infer the overall,the role of weights is critical,especially the sampling survey is more and more difficult to ensure the case of equal probability sampling.The specific survey plan and actual survey data are combined in the forth sample survey of the living conditions of urban and rural elderly in China.The system calculates the weights in the sampling process,at the same time,adjusts and controls the weights according to the weight effect.The knife-cut method is used to compare and analyze the standard error and coefficient of relevant statistics to verify the effectiveness of weight control in improving accuracy.Finally,an empirical analysis is carried out based on the survey data of the living conditions of the elderly.The results show that the standard error of the interception of the weights by the knife-cut method is more effective than the standard error of the unadjusted weights,for which the coefficient of the variables is smaller.

关 键 词：人口统计 权数 权数控制 抽样设计 权效应 

分 类 号：C811[社会学—统计学]