基于改进GM(1,N)模型的对空情报雷达费用预测  

Cost Prediction of Airborne Intelligence Radar Based on Improved GM(1,N) Model

作　　者：张长聪 方其庆[1] 刘庆华[1] 夏亮[1] 施端阳 ZHANG Changcong;FANG Qiqing;LIU Qinghua;XIA Liang;SHI Duanyang(Air Force Early Warning Academy,Wuhan 430019,China;The No.73127 th Troop of PLA,Fuzhou 350500,China)

机构地区：[1]空军预警学院,武汉430019 [2]73127部队,福州350500

出　　处：《兵器装备工程学报》2019年第11期144-148,共5页Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61601509);2015年国家军用标准制(修)订计划项目(15CB002);国家博士后基金项目(2016M603045)

摘　　要：运用灰色关联分析法筛选出影响费用的显著因素,并对数据进行光滑性处理,在分析原模型背景值构造形式的基础上对其进行优化,重新构建了GM(1,N)模型的背景值,提出了改进后的灰色GM(1,N)模型,通过实例进行仿真运算和模型对比分析,该改进模型能够有效地提高预测精度。The Grey relational analysis method was used to screen out the significant factors affecting the cost and smooth the data.Based on the analysis of the original model background value structure,the background value of the GM(1,N)model was reconstructed and the improved Grey GM(1,N)model was proposed.The simulation operation and model comparison analysis were carried out by examples.The improved model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：费用预测 灰色系统 GM(1 N)模型 背景值优化 

分 类 号：TN95[电子电信—信号与信息处理]