收入分布变迁对消费结构的影响:理论分析与实证检验  

The Influence of Income Distribution Change on Consumption Structure: Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test

作　　者：杨程博[1] 孙巍[2] 赵奚[3] YANG Chengbo;SUN Wei;ZHAO Xi(School of Mathematics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;Institute of Soft Science Development,Jilin Provincial Academy of Social Sciences,Changchun 130033,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数学学院,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012 [3]吉林省社会科学院软科学开发研究所,吉林长春130033

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2019年第6期50-59,共10页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(16FJL006);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(15JJD790010);吉林省科技厅优秀青年人才基金项目(20190103029JH);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(451160301300,451190340053)

摘　　要：基于所构建的收入分布变迁影响居民消费结构的理论模型,选取2011年和2013年的中国家庭金融调查数据并利用样本分割的门限回归模型对理论分析结果进行了实证检验。研究表明,具有适度收入差距并呈现出低收入组群不断跨入高收入组群特征的收入分布变迁更有利于居民消费结构升级。前者可凭借高收入组群自身更加积极的消费升级倾向,及其所产生的示范效应来点燃升级引擎;后者则能显著地挤出居民生存型消费而为消费结构的持续升级和优化提供长效驱动力,但始终离不开政府的针对性政策支撑。此外,有效供给亦是推进消费结构升级的必要条件。Based on the theoretical model that the income distribution changes affect residents’ consumption structure, the data from Chinese household financial survey in 2011 and 2013 were selected and the threshold regression model with sample split was used to empirically test the theoretical analysis results. The research shows that the change of income distribution with moderate income gap and showing the characteristics of the low-income group moving into the high-income group is more conducive to the upgrading of residents’ consumption structure. The former can ignite the upgrading engine by the more active consumption upgrading tendency of high-income groups and their demonstration effect. The latter can significantly crowd out the residents’ subsistence consumption and provide a strong and long-term driving force for the continuous upgrading and optimization of the consumption structure, but it can’t be separated from the strong support of the targeted policies from government. In addition, the availability of supply is also a necessary condition to promote the upgrading of consumption structure.

关 键 词：收入分布变迁 消费结构 样本分割的门限回归 家庭调查数据 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]