基于前景理论的农村小额保险减贫效应研究  

Research on the Effect of Rural Microfinance Poverty Reduction Based on Prospect Theory

作　　者：廖朴[1] 贺晔平 LIAO Pu;HE Yeping(China Institute for Actuarial Science,Central University of Finance and Economic,Beijing 100081,China;School of Insurance,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学中国精算研究院,北京100081 [2]中央财经大学保险学院,北京100081

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2019年第6期60-74,共15页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“人口老龄化背景下中国基本养老保险制度的财政风险研究”(16BJY186);北京市社会科学基金重大项目“人口老龄化背景下中国养老产品供求研究”(15ZDA47)

摘　　要：小额保险不仅是金融精准扶贫的重要手段也是精准扶贫体系的重要支撑工具。本文基于前景理论和农村居民收入水平的实际情况,结合精准扶贫内涵,建立了一个评价保险减贫效应的动态系统理论模型,借此讨论小额保险精准扶贫效应问题。研究发现:保险对农村不同收入水平的个体的减贫效应存在差异,本文将扶贫对象精准划分为显性贫困、潜在绝对贫困和潜在相对贫困三类;农村小额保险能有效减少农村绝对贫困总人数和相对贫困总人数,并且传统保险也能大幅改善农村相对贫困现状,但是传统保险会恶化农村绝对贫困现状;单独的保险工具无法彻底解决深度贫困(显性贫困)问题,而作为金融扶贫的一种创新模式,"小额保险+信贷"是解决深度贫困(显性贫困)问题的有效工具。Microinsurance is not only an important means of financial targeted poverty alleviation but also an important supporting tool for a targeted poverty alleviation system. Based on the prospect theory and the actual situation of rural residents’ income level, combined with the connotation of targeted poverty alleviation, this paper establishes a dynamic system theory model to evaluate the effect of insurance on poverty reduction and discusses the problem of microinsurance targeted poverty alleviation effect. The study finds that insurance has different poverty alleviation effects on individuals with different income levels in rural areas. Therefore, this paper divides poverty alleviation objects into three categories: dominant poverty, potential absolute poverty and potential relative poverty. Furthermore, we find that rural microinsurance can effectively reduce the total number of absolute poverty and relative poverty in rural areas, and traditional insurance can also significantly improve the status of rural relative poverty, but traditional insurance will worsen the status of absolute poverty in rural areas. In addition, it is found that a single insurance tool cannot completely solve the problem of deep poverty, and as an innovative model of financial poverty alleviation, "Microinsurance+Credit" is an effective tool to solve the problem of deep poverty.

关 键 词：前景理论 小额保险 精准扶贫 精准识别 陷贫概率 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]