长三角人口集聚与产业结构高级化的互动关系研究  

Research of Interactive Relation Between Population Agglomeration and Industry Structure Upgrade in Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：李晓阳[1] 鄢晓凤 罗超平[1] 龙贝 LI Xiao-yang;YAN Xiao-feng;LUO Chao-ping;LONG Bei(Institute of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2020年第1期18-27,共10页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“博弈视阈下农民工市民化诱导机理研究”(71373215);西南大学人文社会科学研究重大项目培育(SWU1909034)

摘　　要：基于长三角一体化战略上升为国家战略的背景,文章从人口集聚与产业结构高级化的双重视角出发,以2000-2017年我国"长三角"三省一市的面板数据为样本,构建包括人口集聚与产业结构高级化在内的联立方程模型,并运用三阶段最小二乘法对长三角人口集聚与产业结构高级化的互动关系进行实证。结果表明人口集聚与产业结构高级化存在互动:人口集聚主要通过发挥人力资本效应促进产业结构高级化;产业结构高级化对人口集聚的促进作用呈"倒U"型;产业结构高级化初期主要通过促进经济发展推动人口集聚,后期则会因为扩大人力资本需求而抑制人口集聚。研究结论对当下长三角一体化战略推进具有一定的借鉴价值。Based on the background of the development of the Yangtze River Delta integration strategy into a nationalstrategy,this paper takes the panel data of the three provinces and one city of the Yangtze River Delta from 2000-2017 asa sample from the perspective of population agglomeration and industry structure upgrade. This paper constructs a jointequation model including population agglomeration and industry structure upgrade,and uses the three-stage least squaresmethod to demonstrate the interaction between population agglomeration and industry structure upgrade in the YangtzeRiver Delta. The results show that the population agglomeration has interaction with the industry structure upgrade:popu-lation agglomeration mainly promotes the industry structure upgrade by exerting the human capital effect;the promotioneffect of industry structure upgrade on population agglomeration is "inverted U" type;in the early stage of the industrystructure upgrade,the population agglomeration was mainly promoted by promoting economic development,and in the lat-er period,the population agglomeration was suppressed because of the expansion of human capital demand. The conclu-sion of the study is of great significance to the strategic advancement of the current Yangtze River Delta integration.

关 键 词：人口集聚 产业结构高级化 联立方程 三阶段最小二乘法 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F240